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Aluminum aluminum weekly review: Shanghai 1. Short-term volatility (near 20000 sideways, 5. 9 - 5. 13)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-25
Core tip: Aaron aluminum fell below $1550 this week, next week is likely to dipped below $1500, below the risk is not big, concussion bottoming is given priority to; Shanghai aluminum main took back 1. Below the 20000 mark, strong support, bargain hunting is positive, is expected in 11750 - next week 12300 yuan between, below 1. 20000 cash to buy.

a, electrolytic aluminium market

figure 1: the Yangtze river spot aluminium charts
in east China: prices this week to continue to give priority to with the callback, has rebounded after two days, but the overall size is limited, as of Friday the Yangtze spot prices in 12200 - 12240 yuan/ton, since the beginning of this may, the Yangtze river in spot prices decline has reached 3. 4%. Cold spot market, the market clinch a deal this week, a shipper's price more shipment, a few days ago is influenced by prices continue to drop, the downstream enterprises and intermediary wait-and-see, is two days after the price falling market purchase, but purchase quantity is limited, a drag on the market clinch a deal.

figure 2: south China aluminum spot charts
in south China, guangdong area suffered flood recently, the market aluminium ingot reduced the volume of the arrival of the goods, supply tense situation becomes more serious, according to traders, Shanghai part of the aluminium ingot will be shipped to southern China, as of Friday aluminum ingots in south China in 12620 - to bring my ticket prices Price of 12720 yuan/ton, the businessman is quite serious, want to emotions, clinch a deal the local market is more active, positive downstream stock.

2, aluminium scrap market

table 1: aluminium scrap prices compared to
around the last week, as we expected, aluminum prices callback is not over, scrap aluminum prices also follow to decline this week, especially on Tuesday, with the fall in the ultra 200 yuan, has rebounded after two days, but the range is limited, difficult to mask the recent losses, as of Friday, south China clean machine raw aluminum market mainstream in 9050 - quotation 9250 yuan/ton. The spot market, prices continue to drop, the market more pessimistic, reduce delivery, merchants more wait-and-see, with prices falling, after volume increase gradually, supply tight, then smelter for increase. Smelters to reflect, in another development, according to more recent prices for aluminium scrap aluminium prices defensive, lead to the finished product and the profits between aluminium scrap. Along with the coming of the off-season, smelter is now order began to decrease.
3, analysis of futures market,


figure 3: Aaron aluminum date line charts
Aaron aluminum continue to fall this week, but slide over the week slowing, lowest intraday fell to near $1538, after a slight rebound, 15 points on Friday fluctuations near $1546, down from last week about $52, or 3. 25%.

Monday Aaron aluminum continue to fall, because of China's import and export data is bad, but still firmly above $1550, Tuesday, Wednesday, Aaron recover from aluminum, but near $1580, once again fell and fell below $1550, a stronger dollar is still the main reason for the limit price rebound.

at present is still in the callback trend of aluminum Aaron below 1550 will continue to fall to $1500, after the price is also half a year to aluminium uplink channel offline support, is expected to fall below are much less likely, Aaron aluminium material is given priority to with concussion bottoming next week.

figure 4: Shanghai aluminum date line charts
this week, the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 12000 yuan to support, the lowest intraday fell to 11770 yuan, under the support of bargain hunting after recovery, to retake the $12000 mark, on Friday, 15 points in 12070 yuan, down from last week about $270, or 2. 19%,

Shanghai aluminum, strong support near 11750 yuan of bargain hunting is positive, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue down the space is not large, next week interval arrangement is given priority to, band - 11750 12300 yuan.

4, operating advice

Aaron aluminum fell below $1550 this week, at present is still in the callback trend of aluminum Aaron below 1550 will continue to fall to $1500, after the price is also half a year to aluminium uplink channel offline support, is expected to fall below are much less likely, Aaron aluminium material is given priority to with concussion bottoming next week. Shanghai aluminum main took back 1 this week. Below the 20000 mark, strong support, bargain hunting is positive, is expected in 11750 - next week 12300 yuan between, below 1. 20000 cash to buy.
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