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Aluminum weekly review: aluminum prices next week to maintain range ( 8. 8 - 8. 12)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Core tip: the lack of good news to stimulate, intraday long-short interweave, Aaron aluminum maintain 1630 - this week 1670 range, maintain 12200 - Shanghai aluminum index 12460 range, due to domestic market inventories, aluminium bulls will wane, and spot demand downturn, next week is expected to aluminum prices remained range, suggest that buyers can delivery right amount to buy on dips in months.

a, electrolytic aluminium market

figure 1: the Yangtze river spot aluminium charts
in east China, is different from last week prices ended higher after initially falling, prices rise before they fell this week, on Monday, more than one hundred yuan raised then begin to fall, pared gains, as of Friday the Yangtze spot prices in 12570 - 12610 yuan/ton, from Friday (10 yuan. Market trading, week hold suppliers on every shipment price increase positive, although after a few days price is declining, but for nearby delivery, merchants in now intend to high, the grocers actively adjust the shipment, the market supply of goods, but the downstream enterprises choose more influenced by poor demand on the sidelines or on-demand receiving is given priority to, the market clinch a deal which between traders.

figure 2: south China aluminum spot charts
in south China: foshan area aluminum prices this week with the east China area relatively slightly inferior, losses, aluminum ingots with ticket prices fall below 1 again. 30000, as of foshan aluminum ingots to bring my ticket prices in 12890 - on Friday 12990 yuan/ton, from Friday down 70 yuan. Markets, clinch a deal in guangdong area increasing aluminum spot inventory, ample supply of goods, the shipper of difficult pretty price, actively adjust the shipment, the downstream enterprises as demand, purchasing motivation is not high, clinch a deal this week in south China market is relatively less in east China.

2, aluminium scrap market

table 1: aluminium scrap prices compared to
around the whole aluminium scrap prices this week than last week's fluctuation is not big, foshan area aluminium scrap prices on Monday following price rises 50 yuan, giving up on Friday, stable performance, ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices slightly 50 yuan, as of Friday, south China clean machine raw aluminum market mainstream in 8800 - quotation 9000 yuan/ton, between the local market supply abundant, smelter on-demand stock up. Mimi, hebei, bond area waste aluminum prices haven't changed much, the environmental group in aluminum processing area, henan gongyi aluminum processing enterprises by raids, most smelters to shut down for a while. Hebei regional market supply tight, prices are relatively strong, local manufacturers smelting of non-standard 102 aluminum ingots to surrounding and jiangsu region, the market price is in 10700 yuan/ton, near the arrival of the goods price depending on the freight and labor cost.

as a whole, this week the waste aluminum price fluctuation is not big, the market clinch a deal is still light. Material aluminium scrap prices next week and limited space, or continue to partial stability.
3, analysis of futures market,


figure 3: Aaron aluminum day line charts
the non-farm payrolls data better than expected last week, the federal reserve to raise interest rates expected to ascend, price movements, Aaron aluminum remained 1630 - this week 1670 range, the highest rise to 1666. $5, intraday long-short interweave, lack of good data, is expected next week dominated by interval shock aluminum.

figure 4: Shanghai aluminum day line charts
Shanghai aluminum up before they fell this week, band - 12200 12460 yuan/ton, the overall center of gravity move up, but because of market inventories, aluminium bulls will wane, and spot demand downturn, spot prices by discount to premium, futures settlement in month next week, investors were cautious before delivery, after delivery, under pressure from weak demand, prices continue to maintain the range.

4, operating advice

the lack of good news to stimulate, intraday long-short interweave, Aaron aluminum maintain 1630 - this week 1670 range, maintain 12200 - Shanghai aluminum index 12460 range, due to domestic market inventories, aluminium bulls will wane, and spot demand downturn, next week is expected to aluminum prices remained range, suggest that buyers can delivery right amount to buy on dips in months.
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