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Aluminum weekly review: delivery in month, aluminium or invigorating the fall may be next week ( 9. 12 - 9. 14)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Core clew: this week coincides with the Mid-Autumn festival small long vacation, only three days, aluminum prices downward move, Aaron aluminum for the fed to raise interest rates expected to heat up, to new lows, short-term is expected to weak continuity; Shanghai for spot aluminium firm, to fall is limited, but near the futures delivery date, month and the difference of nearly 300 in recent months, the spot does not exclude the possibility with fill down, temporarily do not recommend to buy goods, first on the sidelines. The other 15 - 18 for the Mid-Autumn festival holiday and weekend, holiday at home.

a, electrolytic aluminium market

figure 1: the Yangtze river spot aluminium charts
in east China, because this Thursday is the Mid-Autumn festival, the domestic financial market was closed, so the spot aluminum ingots offer only three days, in east China aluminium ingot prices overall performance declines, week by a stronger dollar, aluminum prices up to one hundred yuan, although the two days after prices strong, recover some losses, but falling prices do not change, as of Friday, changjiang spot prices - in 12560 12600 yuan/ton, from Friday down 90 yuan. Spot market clinch a deal, for nearby delivery in month, the month, more than 300 yuan differ with distant months contract businesses more safety, hold shipment shipper of positive, eager to change now, the market supply abundant, traders wait-and-see atmosphere, pick up the goods is not much, ready for the downstream enterprise on the dips on-demand, volume than last week.

figure 2: south China aluminum spot charts
in south China: as of Friday aluminum ingots in south China in 12690 - to bring my ticket prices 12790 yuan/ton, from Friday down one hundred yuan, the local market supply is abundant, the price cut, the weaker, downstream and middlemen goods carefully, hold the shipper keep normal shipment, clinch a deal the general market.

2, aluminium scrap market

table 1: aluminium scrap prices compared to
this week around the aluminium scrap prices relatively stable defensive foshan area part of aluminium scrap prices for aluminium ingot on Monday cut of one hundred yuan, the shipper of pricing, cut 50 yuan, as of Friday, south China clean machine raw aluminum market mainstream quotation remain near 8800 yuan. Aluminium scrap market clinch a deal this week than last week, the Mid-Autumn festival approaching, combined with aluminium face delivery in month, aluminum spot may fill down, recyclers more safety, shipping, receiving, smelter remained on-demand stock operation, market overall trading co. , LTD. Is expected next week aluminium scrap prices rebound lack of power, or a slight weakness may be, but no crash risk.
3, analysis of futures market,


figure 3: Aaron aluminum date line charts
the fed to raise interest rates expected to heat up, Aaron aluminum gravity continue down this week, as of Tuesday night, Aaron aluminum to as low as $1559, hit a lowest since nearly three months, the market for the fed meeting next week, were cautious, short-term is expected to Aaron aluminum to maintain the trend of weak shocks, attention to below 1550.

figure 4: Shanghai aluminum date line charts
this week for the Mid-Autumn festival small long vacation, only three working days, by Aaron aluminum slump dragged down, Shanghai aluminum with fell, but due to spot a strong support, the Shanghai aluminum co. , LTD. , falls lowest intraday to 11810, is a new low since nearly three months, in 11800 - overall range this week 12030 interval, in the short term, will be aluminum weak turbulence, and the Shanghai aluminum rose, is expected to maintain short-term shock trend.

4, operating advice

this week coincides with the Mid-Autumn festival small long vacation, only three days, aluminium gravity remains down, Aaron aluminum for the fed to raise interest rates expected to heat up, Aaron aluminum to a lowest since nearly three months, short-term is expected to disadvantaged concussion trend continues, the test below 1550 support; Shanghai for spot aluminium firm, to fall is limited, but near the futures delivery date, month and the contracts in recent months by nearly 300 yuan, the spot does not exclude the possibility delivery after filling fell, temporarily do not recommend to buy goods, first on the sidelines. The other 15 - 18 for the Mid-Autumn festival holiday and weekend, holiday at home.
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