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Aluminum weekly review: delivery, merchants are not urgent to buy ( 9. 5 - 9. 9)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Core tip: aluminium shock down this week, Aaron aluminum since below 1600 support, deep down range is not big, there were signs of stabilization, at the bottom of the next week is expected to return to 1600; Shanghai aluminum for spot strong support, is expected to fall is limited; Cycle under the aluminum will soon delivery, that month and monthly contracts are nearly 300, does not exclude the spot have fill down phenomenon, spot, no hurry to buy.

a, electrolytic aluminium market

figure 1: the Yangtze river spot aluminium charts
in east China: this week in east China Yangtze river aluminium ingot prices ended higher after initially falling, on Monday and Tuesday with aluminum futures fell sharply, one-day drop in nearly 200 yuan on Tuesday, then prices rebound, as of Friday, changjiang spot prices - in 12650 12690 yuan/ton, from Friday's downgrade 50 yuan. Weak spot market, the market demand of the early, and aluminum futures, spot prices to fall, merchants inquiry is more, but the goods is less, wait-and-see atmosphere thick, hold the shipper worry about prices continue downward, positive change, as prices rise, the shipper of normal shipment, downstream to keep the dips on-demand stock, market clinch a deal the better.

figure 2: south China aluminum spot charts
in south China: as of Friday aluminum ingots in south China in 12790 - to bring my ticket prices 12890 yuan/ton, 70 yuan from Friday's downgrade, markets, clinch a deal in more than two days before the market, with prices rebound, some traders bullish on short-term price movements, a proper stock up phenomenon, this week aluminum ingots in south China market supply is abundant, the downstream enterprise on demand stock, clinch a deal is fair.

2, aluminium scrap market

table 1: aluminium scrap prices around the contrast
this week with aluminium scrap aluminum prices in foshan appear cut, amplitude in 50 - 100 yuan, hubei, henan and other places aluminium scrap prices of one hundred yuan, Mimi, hebei section aluminium scrap prices, stronger offer flat last week, as of Friday, south China clean machine raw aluminum market mainstream in 8700 - quotation Declines in 8900 yuan/ton, from Friday in 50 yuan.

market clinch a deal, although now into the traditional peak season in September, but according to understand market demand side is still relatively weak, improvement is not obvious, dragged down the market clinch a deal. Hebei region aluminum rod than recycled aluminum ingots is booming, orders have increased; Shanghai, jiangsu, anhui and other places smelter demand is serious, the actual clinch a deal the price quotation is low; Guangdong area regeneration aluminum ingot production enterprises orders at present no obvious change, not improve demand for aluminium scrap raw materials, lead to local renewable aluminum smelters keep more stock as needed.

for afternoon aluminium scrap prices, we think no crash risk, the overall trend in the short term or shock stabilization. Does not exclude the rose by golden nine silver ten needs improving.
3, analysis of futures market,


figure 3: Aaron aluminum day line charts
Aaron aluminum last week fell below $1600 support, after this week's aluminum is still running at under $1600, the lowest 1575. Five dollars, then rebounded from the trend, Aaron at the bottom of the aluminum shocks to seek support, next week is expected to be back above $1600.

figure 4: Shanghai aluminum date line charts
by Aaron aluminum slump dragged down, this week, the Shanghai aluminum shocks, intraday below 12000, the lowest 11880 yuan, but the spot strong support, the Shanghai aluminum fell space is limited, short-term period aluminum materials continue to consolidate market. Aluminum under another cycle is about to enter the delivery, and the month 1609 contracts and monthly 1610 contract price difference of nearly 300 yuan, did not rule out the spot with subsidies.

4, operating advice

this week price shock downward, Aaron aluminum since below 1600 support, deep down range is not big, there were signs of stabilization, at the bottom of the next week is expected to return to 1600; Shanghai aluminum for spot strong support, is expected to fall is limited; Next cycle is about to cut aluminum, and monthly contracts are nearly 300 during the month, do not rule out the spot invigorating the drop phenomenon, spot, no hurry to buy.
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