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Aluminum weekly review: multiple positive, Shanghai aluminum shocks or continuation of the strong, 10. 10 - 10. 14)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Core clew: National Day holidays coming out a la, prices continue rising trend, and Aaron aluminum rose form in good condition, is expected to exceed 1700 mark; Shanghai aluminum due to raised, spot inventory to reduce support rail, shock strong trend remains unchanged, short-term Shanghai aluminum top attention 1. Resistance at 30000, if the breakthrough, or hit a record high. Spot buyers wait for a moment.

a, electrolytic aluminium market

figure 1: the Yangtze river spot aluminium charts
in east China: before the National Day, the manufacturer of aluminum futures, spot prices situation better than Shanghai hold grocers bullish atmosphere, reached 400 yuan, highest single-day rise to nearly 700 yuan, highest aluminum futures premium prices after the National Day moves, not aluminum as scheduled, giving first part of the gains, premium speed, into a premium exceeds one hundred yuan, as of Friday, changjiang spot prices - in 13360 13400 yuan/ton, the first cut of one hundred yuan.

the spot market, the first shipment a shipper's price is not more, and, rised emotions fade, rising prices is difficult, and near the delivery, the shipper of the shipment is positive, the market supply of goods, the downstream enterprise on the sidelines, more middlemen fill after the worry about delivery fell, the market move goods not active, is more cautious, clinch a deal this week market as a whole is first.

figure 2: south China aluminum spot charts
in south China: from southern China aluminum spot graph can be seen that, in southern China aluminum ingots price downtrend is different from the east China region, but appear in a, all the way to move, as of Friday, aluminum ingots in south China in 13850 - to bring my ticket prices 13950 yuan/ton, the first surge of 640 yuan, the guangdong market continues to decline, the arrival of the goods quantity middlemen fair trading atmosphere, how fast into the operation to be but another downstream has raised concerns about high prices, the downstream feared high, purchase intention is not strong.

2, aluminium scrap market

table 1: aluminium scrap prices compared to
this week across the Yangtze river down the price of aluminium ingot, one hundred yuan, foshan aluminum ingots with ticket prices of 640 yuan, a significant differentiation, and aluminium scrap, can be seen from table 1, foshan scrap aluminum prices in 250 - god more 350 yuan/ton, as of Friday, south China clean machine raw aluminum market mainstream price is around 9350 yuan, a rise of 300 yuan in the first, or other areas also appear differentiation, but near 200 yuan more, fewer parts for supply of goods, the price is relatively strong, rise to expand.

the spot market, merchants have more concentrated stock up by day, more than market purchase this week for on-demand is given priority to, the shipper of normal shipment, overall market supply is abundant, but it is known that high varieties on the market supply of goods is relatively tight, like some iron of less than 3% of the raw aluminum supply tight, but the price is relatively high.
3, analysis of futures market,


figure 3: Aaron aluminum date line charts
first weeks la National Day holiday is over, Aaron aluminum continued rally this week, since October 1, aluminium about rose $25, and so far, the highest rise to 1694. $5, and rising form intact, is expected to break through the $1700 mark, hit a record high, but lonely at the top, watch the prices callback, temporary attention pressure above 1700 next week.

figure 4: Shanghai aluminum date line charts
Aaron rise boost, aluminum and aluminum spot inventory tight support, Shanghai aluminum continue upward trend this week, by the end of the current, the Shanghai aluminum continuous high of up to 12860, this week is up 600 yuan, or 5%, from the point of trend, due to trains increase, automobile limited transport and spot inventory to reduce positive support, such as the Shanghai aluminum shocks or continuation of the strong trend, short-term temporary attention. 13000, line pressure, if the effective breakthrough, or hit a record high.

4, operating advice

futures aspects: National Day holidays coming out weeks la, Aaron aluminum continued rally this week, the highest rise to 1694. $5, and rising form intact, is expected to break through the $1700 mark, hit a record high, but lonely at the top, watch the prices callback, temporary attention pressure above 1700 next week.

Shanghai aluminum for recipients Yu Lun rise, and the tight spot aluminum inventory support, continue to rise, the Shanghai aluminum continuous high of up to 12860, this week is up 600 yuan, or 5%, from the point of trend, due to trains increase, automobile limited transport and spot inventory to reduce positive support, such as the Shanghai aluminum shocks or continuation of the strong trend, short-term temporary attention. 13000, line pressure, if the effective breakthrough, or hit a record high.

the spot: because before the National Day, spot prices soaring, cause the backwardation rise considerably, and this week in near futures delivery month, spot or narrow, backwardation high discount to 600 premium. By early 160, is expected next Monday in month, east China spot aluminium material again to premium, price fluctuation is not big, Monday next week is expected to jump in the narrow, main focus on Shanghai aluminum 13000 line pressure. Suggestions for watching.
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