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Aluminum weekly review: the British European settles back, aluminium or confined downward (next week 6. 20 - 6. 24)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Core tip: Britain withdrew the referendum impact metals markets this week, prices and dilemma. Since the British European settles back on Friday, the market risk aversion, aluminum prices downward pressure, but due to the supply market continues to decline, and each big enterprise joint production, again with falling prices is limited, is expected next week aluminium shock downward, and pay attention to below 1550 a line of support. Shanghai aluminum for domestic spot strong support, the decline is not large, the spot is also slightly to fall, Suggestions on the sidelines, or appropriate purchasing under 12000 yuan/ton.

a, electrolytic aluminium market

figure 1: the Yangtze river spot aluminium charts
in east China: after delivery, the shipper offer strong, spot price increases sharply, two days after the date of this week is influenced by the British withdrawal from the eu referendum, investor risk aversion, aluminum prices trend is more cautious, changjiang spot aluminum prices in 12550 - as of Friday 12590 yuan/ton, from Friday rose 370 yuan. Spot market, prices rebound sharply this week, the suppliers on the above cargo is positive, especially in the transfer prices down, businesses worry about prices continue to fall, strengthening shipment, but the downstream enterprises and clearly feared high, market sentiment is not high, a drag on the market clinch a deal, clinch a deal this week market as a whole show thin.

figure 2: south China aluminum spot charts
in south China: south China aluminum prices have surged this week, although the late appear cut, but the range is limited, the overall situation is better than in east China, as of Friday aluminum ingots in south China in 12960 - to bring my ticket prices 13060 yuan/ton, from Friday to raise 560 yuan. Spot market, the market in south China also give priority to in order to ship the grocers, downstream enterprise on-demand procurement, market trading co. , LTD.

2, aluminium scrap market

table 1: aluminium scrap prices around the contrast
aluminium scrap prices this week following prices increase dramatically, especially in southern China, rose to 300 yuan, as of Friday, south China clean machine raw aluminum market mainstream in 9100 - quotation Parts of 9300 yuan/ton, affected by the low season to keep up with demand, and increase degree of loss, near 150 yuan. Spot market, with prices rebounded sharply, the shipper of the shipment is positive, the circulation of the market supply is abundant, some varieties of high supply is still tight, recyclers by smelter of stock reduction factors, receiving strength decrease, interacting, serious, some smelter off-season factors influence, orders decreased significantly, and reduced demand for aluminium scrap raw materials, downstream enterprise on-demand procurement is given priority to, more market clinch a deal the cold and cheerless.

the Friday afternoon to take off the referendum results, about 52% of British voters support Britain from the European Union, the European success, caused the dollar to speed recovery, metal tumbled. Dollar rebound or inhibit aluminium, aluminium or next week there will be a downtrend, aluminium scrap or soft edged.
3, analysis of futures market,


figure 3: Aaron aluminum day line charts
this week Britain withdrew the referendum impact metal market, investor risk aversion to heat up, lead to price fluctuation. Week by Britain withdrew the lower risk, the dollar decline, boost aluminium rebound, dish in all the way higher, the highest rise 1642. $5, as the British European settles back on Friday, weigh on prices downward, Aaron aluminum fell briefly below 1600 and then back to $1600 with a line, in the short term the British back, a stronger dollar or a certain influence on the movements of prices, is expected next week aluminium shock downward, and pay attention to below 1550 a line of support.

figure 4: Shanghai aluminum date line charts
Shanghai aluminum by Aaron, fall after rise first, and the stock market continues to decline, and each big enterprise joint production again, traders once promoted backwardation shipment, support the Shanghai aluminum, aluminum four consecutive days this week, Shanghai rise, the highest intraday rise to 12300 yuan/ton, the lowest 11895 yuan/ton, but as the British European settles back on Friday, the Shanghai aluminum fell 1 row. 19%. For next week, we believe that affected by Britain withdrew the aluminium or shock, but because the basic face is good, the Shanghai aluminum material with lower co. , LTD. , pay attention to below 11800 yuan/ton.

4, operating advice

this week Britain withdrew the referendum impact metal market, investor risk aversion to heat up, lead to price fluctuation. Since the British European settles back on Friday, the market risk aversion, aluminum prices downward pressure, but due to the supply market continues to decline, and each big enterprise joint production, again with falling prices is limited, is expected next week aluminium shock downward, and pay attention to below 1550 a line of support. Shanghai aluminum for domestic spot strong support, the decline is not large, the spot is also slightly to fall, Suggestions on the sidelines, or appropriate purchasing under 12000 yuan/ton.
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