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Back up unsustainable consumption

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Futures daily reported on July 27: in the second quarter of domestic macroeconomic show some bright spots, such as the capacity to continue to change and the consumption growth picks up. Transformation and upgrading of China's economic structure is the important direction of relying less investment, and consumption dependence.

in June, total retail sales of social consumer goods 2. 6857 trillion yuan, compared with the same nominal growth 10. Actual growth 9 6%, excluding the price factors. 7%, higher than that of growth last month respectively 0. 6%. June rise in consumption growth, mainly related to real estate consumption growth rate is higher, fine items such as building decoration materials, furniture, household appliances, such as growth of 14 respectively. 2%, 13. 4% and 12. 3%, growth in consumption study.

the author thinks that, back up unsustainable consumption growth in June, due to declining household income growth and the deterioration of the employment situation, the consumption of subsequent underpowered, annual growth is expected to below 2015 levels.

consumption growth in June increase may be associated with seasonal factors, and many contradictions exist and other indicators, no real fundamentals. In 2003 & ndash; At the end of each year, according to data from the 2015 years of history, and at the beginning of the next year the New Year's day and Spring Festival factors, total retail sales of social consumer goods will be the seasonal growth, after a slight drop in February, 3 & ndash; Consumption growth in June and will continue to rise. Increase the growth, but also conforms to the seasonal characteristics, and did not show obvious seasonal rebound. Macroeconomic fundamentals continue to deteriorate, also does not support consumption.

residents income growth continues to decline, the kinetic energy consumption. Decided to consumption is the main factor income level, 2014 to June 2016, both urban and rural residents per capita disposable income growth rate continued to decline, consumption growth also continuously down the steps. Incomes have yet to see signs of improvement, generally need to until the end of the economy and corporate earnings cycle, just may see.

decided to income levels of the employment situation is still grim. Shifts power cohesion, the reform of state-owned enterprises, such as to capacity will lead to the emergence of the structural unemployment. The central bank of the urban depositors questionnaire survey data show that in the second quarter of 2016 the future employment expectations index of 45. Quarter of 0%, more than slightly improve 0. 2%, but is still in the second quarter of 2009 since the time of the low level, predict the future income growth will slow further. This can be from future income in the second quarter of 2016 confidence index, the index in a low level since the second quarter of 2009, dropped to 48. 8%.

health economy, consumption growth is steady rebound, and occupy the main contribution to economic growth, the need to benign social security system, as well as the stability of employment and income growth along with the recovery of the economic return on investment, purchasing power, the marginal propensity to consume synchronous picks up. Reform of the current on the supply side of a crucial moment, unfavorable to improve employment and incomes. Even if see consumption, to the promotion of economic contribution is not optimistic, because it mainly due to decline in investment accelerated.
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