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Before raising interest rates last year scene reappearance: three quarters where the fed support to raise the discount rate

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Most fed officials will press close to, according to a report like before the federal reserve to raise interest rates in December last year, there are nine local fed support last month raised its discount rate, three-quarters of the total number of place to the fed.

published on Tuesday September the fed meeting minutes, according to the discount rate of 12 regional federal reserve nine support rate hike last month, where support for the fed for the most since December last year. Last November nine places the fed in favor of raising the discount rate, a month after the monetary policy meeting, the fed's decision to start raising interest rates for the first time in nine years.

the discount rate in September meeting, in addition to meeting will support rate hike in August Cleveland, Richmond, st. Louis, Kansas city, San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia and Dallas fed, Atlanta fed officials have also joined their camp, to advocate the discount rate by 1% to 1. 25%. Only Chicago, Minneapolis and New York fed does not want to change the discount rate.

the discount rate is what the federal reserve rates for commercial Banks to provide loans, its and the difference between the overnight federal funds rate is an important economic regulation tool of the federal reserve. Voting is the discount rate reflects the local federal reserve chairman whether to support the main sign of interest rate changes.

see Wall Street after the article points out that the fed's statement and high officials of the discount rate they commented on the FOMC meeting, generally is the same. Such as the Kansas city fed officials recently meeting requirements by discount rates four times in a row. In this year's FOMC meeting, Kansas city fed chairman Esther George voted against the four consecutive think the fed should be raising interest rates, should not be on hold.

however, the market expectations and the discount rate meeting minutes reflect most of the federal reserve official attitude is very different. Most fed officials may wish to raise interest rates, but at the end of market expectations probability is much higher rates, the probability of November meeting the fed is expected to raise rates less than 9%, and the probability of a month after raising interest rates by more than 60%.

September meeting minutes?

the discount rate in September, according to the meeting minutes support to raise the discount rate where the fed officials believe that a stronger economic activity and employment market should be pushing inflation over the medium term gradually recovered to 2%. Opposed to raising the discount rate where the fed officials believe that the economic outlook and support to maintain the current below the fed's target inflation easing.

overall, fed officials believe U. S. economic activity, moderate expansion, different performance in different industries and regions:
more reports, including auto sales, consumer spending has a positive growth,
more files reflect the real estate market, commercial real estate construction is & other Health & throughout; Situation,
some places mentioned, the global economic weakness, the economic outlook has downside risks;
most officials found that America's Labour market supply various skill levels and trades are tighter, multiple categories of post wage rise pressure at the same time.
the fed differences again now

last month voted and decided the fed's monetary policy meeting held, voted against the officials for the most since December 2014 meeting. In July of the last meeting, only one officials hope to raise interest rates.

among them, George has always been firmly, Mester also to keep interest rates low for a long time to be cautious, and Rosengren is a perennial dove represents.

a former fed economist Roberto Perli commented that the three fed officials opposed to stay put, that policymaking committee FOMC winds of change. Cebm macro research team believes that it not only reflects the fed increased internal divisions, also suggests that the next higher interest rates may not be too far away.

Stanley Fischer, vice President of the federal reserve said on Monday that low interest rates could lead to more serious long-term decline, make the economy more vulnerable, and may threaten financial stability, although so far there is no evidence that the threat of instability.

since barclays economists point out that Fischer's remarks reflect the fed still have differences, on Friday, fed chairman yellen mentioned may need & other; High pressure throughout the economy &; ( 高- - - - - - 经济压力) , suggesting that should keep the economy became hot, and keep the economic hot Fischer, think that there is no much space.
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