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China data boosted prices but this rally will continue how long?

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Abstract: China's economic data boosted by good, after a half month period of consolidation, the cycle of copper finally broke out.

zhi shang ( CMEGroup) Data show that last week, the most active on the COMEX copper futures rose in December 3. 2%, the biggest weekly gain two months. On Thursday, On September 22) In early trading, December COMEX copper hit a 2 per pound. $18, it is a month to the highest level.

recently released by China's fixed asset investment, real estate sales, car production and sales data are strong and supportive of copper. China is the world's most important copper consumer, China accounted for more than 40% of global consumption of refined copper consumption, therefore, the demand for copper in China often can affect prices.

in addition, the federal reserve's decision not to raise interest rates in September also let the market offer, the dollar is influenced by the shock downward. A stronger dollar is generally not good for copper price. Analysts now believe that the fed's most likely to raise interest rates in December. As of this morning Beijing time, the CME FedWatch also showed that close to 60% chance traders expect the fed to raise interest rates in December.

as of Wednesday, December COMEX copper futures fell 0. 5%, to 2. 155 dollars/pounds, compared to last Friday's closing price of basic movements.

barclays, points out that China's recent economic data to the copper prices & other; Big green light & throughout; 。 In the second half of the bank believes, recent data suggest that China is unlikely to slow. At the same time it also points out that & other; China's domestic copper inventories low, copper rose at a premium. If further ease credit conditions, or further support downstream demand over the next few months. ”

in addition, the commodity futures trading commission last Friday ( CFTC) Data show that as of September 13, the weekly, hedge funds and fund managers hold COMEX copper net short fall.

but, despite the recent copper prices soared, but due to concerns about the future supply and demand, bearish view still. According to the latest figures, the COMEX copper stocks rose to a high since the middle of April, China's refined copper output in August also record for at least six months.

the CME, according to data by Tuesday COMEX copper inventory of 70281 tons, highs in five months.

this week, Macquarie lowered price expectations. Jpmorgan chase to recommend shorting copper. Ubs wealth management also advises from copper, and that China has too many copper imports. Analysts pointed out that from China's demand growth may not be enough to offset the impact of the strength and abundant supplies this year.

for copper, another is not good news is that China is also in production. China's National Bureau of Statistics data released on Monday showed, the production of refined copper in August 74. 30000 tons, as the high level of at least 6 months, year-on-year rise 2. 9%, up 12% year-on-year. Eight months before the total output of 5. 5 million tons, the highest in the same period in history, year-on-year growth of 8. 7%. China is the world's largest producer of refined copper.

Chinese smelters to increase production, mainly because the smelting profit increased, to expand capacity. However, at the end of last year, China, jiangxi copper, tongling nonferrous included 10 copper producers also vowed the production of 350000 tons, in 2016 China's copper production of 8 last year. 75%.

but according to the international copper study group ( ICSG) The latest data released Tuesday, the global refined market supply gap has widened in June, rose 1. 40000 tons, to 8. 30000 tons. 1 - Supply of 30 June. 60000 tons.
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