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Citi: the European central bank in December or cut QE and extend QE for six months

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Citi said in the latest in a note to clients, expected the European central bank meeting in December, will announce to extend QE project for six months, until next September, at the same time reduce the extended period QE purchases, from 80 billion euros per month to 60 billion euros. Citigroup believes that if the European central bank is not in the December meeting reduce QE size, so will be announced in March meeting.

in addition, before the end of QE, the European central bank could announce further extend the time of QE, to March 2018, the lowest monthly purchases or extended period is 40 billion euro. Citi's guess is that the ECB will officially ended in September 2018 QE, to reduce the 10 billion euros for each meeting announced the way over. That is to say, citigroup is expected to be on the basis of the original the ECB QE ( After the March 2017) For an additional 18 months, buy about 700 billion euros.

citi also believes that the ECB will be at the meeting on October 20, announced to relax the conditions of the purchase of assets, including increase in public bond purchases, and does not require the public sector must bond yields higher than interest rates on deposits. This will ease the market's worries about the scarcity to buy bonds, is advantageous to the market for the transition of the new policy.

after many analysts believe that by the end of 2016, the European central bank, or have to buy each to buy bonds in the market. Citigroup is expected, even the European central bank may be in November, there is no German bonds can buy.

it is now over from the earliest QE program time is less than six months. Before march next year, the European central bank and four policy-setting meeting, on October 20, on January 19, on December 8, and 9 March.

last week, bloomberg said the European central bank or 10 billion euros per month to reduce asset purchase way, to end the QE. When to begin to cut asset purchase depends on the economy. But since then, the European central bank spokesman denied shrink QE says has not yet been discussed. But the market for the European central bank to cut the QE guess rising voices.

the European central bank current QE project for 80 billion euros per month, until at least march next year. The European central bank meeting in September to maintain the current policy unchanged, including interest rates and asset purchases. The European central bank has repeatedly said that if necessary, QE project will be extended to March 2017, until the path of inflation close to target. Because of the euro zone's economic recovery is slow, many economists believe that the European central bank or prolonged QE program.
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