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Copper weekly review: bad gather copper shakeouts next week ( 5. 16 - 5. 20)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-25
Core tip: macro market bearish gathered at present, China's economy slows and the federal reserve to raise interest rates affect the market confidence; Copper technical indicators showed copper rose lack enough kinetic energy, so next week is expected to copper shakeouts is given priority to, including 4500 - copper interval $4750 / ton, Shanghai copper main range of 34500 - 32000-36500 yuan/ton, copper scrap 33000 yuan/ton.

a, electrolytic copper market

table 1: east China (electrolytic copper price Unit: RMB)
overall stable domestic spot copper market clinch a deal this week, while copper prices is not stable. Affected by the tight supply, spot copper after delivery still recovered quickly from premium, and stable litres of water. We see from the import figure of profit and loss, hangs narrowing this week, but it has yet to recover imported supplies. Was rised because of the importer, on the other hand, some imported to Hong Kong. Shipment is still conservative and domestic copper, the new capacity of the shandong, several old smelter select shutdown overhaul in the weak market. Circulation of the few domestic copper brand. Due to the shrinking of China's imports, LME copper backwardation but fall this week, the late strong outside weak market continued in the material. And the downstream side, copper processing factory receiving more normal this week, as originally inventory level is not high, and low prices to attract manufacturers inventory procurement, as of Friday's procurement has slowed. Enter at the end of next week, and manufacturer to purchase over, the spot market turnover or declined. But the recent don't close connection with fundamentals, is still based on macro and technical.

figure 1: import the ultimate value of profit and loss and Shanghai has
2, renewable copper market

after entering metal consumption off-season, copper prices. Copper scrap prices this week than last week, although have a gain of 200 yuan, clinch a deal but the market has not happened. Copper plant in procurement strategy seems to have changed, as far as we know, the recent factory copper rod to poor sales, purchasing copper scrap will reduce, purchasing price when copper prices fell. Recent copper scrap around the price difference is bigger, statistics found that hebei and tianjin in north China, copper scrap prices are higher than in south China were nearly 500 yuan, the current source scarcity situation is more serious in north China, on the one hand, imports, on the other hand is difficult to keep up with domestic scrap, northeast before the goods shipped to north China copper plant more, at present to shandong is increasing, so content with rare for expensive, copper scrap prices ahead all over the country.

figure 2: electrolytic copper with copper scrap supply light line
keep tight situation, therefore, when copper prices fell, the shipper will delivery is low, performance rised, falling copper scrap the whole space is limited. So, the recent copper scrap and a closing price difference of the electrolytic copper, copper scrap prices are relatively high, the copper factory side seems to have hesitated, prefer the high quality and low price of electrolytic copper is given priority to, the situation is expected to continue.
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