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Copper weekly review: stable economic data recovery of copper, 9. 12 - 9. 14)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Core tip: the Mid-Autumn festival holiday outside dish regular trading, while domestic there are other economic data released during holiday, the holiday news more or the good is not clear. Expected short-term shocks, is expected to copper 4630 - run interval Copper 36400-4750, Shanghai 37200, 32500 - copper scrap 33000.

a, electrolytic copper market

table 1: east China (electrolytic copper price Unit: RMB)

this copper cycle performance dip rebounded, Shanghai copper futures volatility is small, the spot price rise in overall performance. Although import arbitrage window open this week, but the market bullish on copper the busy season, so the shipper shipment mood cooled, the market supply of goods to reduce significantly from last week. Due to the Mid-Autumn festival approaching, round appeared on Monday for library enthusiasm, thus the overall market volume increased from last week. Unfortunately, failure to form a downstream persistent buying. Clinch a deal the show obvious signs of decline in cascade, hot on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, cold and cheerless. So we think today so far, the peak season consumption is not obvious improve, businesses after the first complete library operation gradually away from the city led to the copper market clinch a deal, the phenomenon of the bluff type in three days. So for now, the peak season copper prices still struggling, copper prices strong need to be more positive.

figure 1: import the ultimate value of profit and loss and Shanghai has

2, renewable copper market

copper scrap prices this week to follow spot copper price increase, but it doesn't meet synchronization of the volume, mainly due to the secondary copper market supply is tight. Copper scrap market is seriously influenced by the previous environmental protection as well as imports of copper shortage, at present, a lot of the grocers in wait-and-see, while prices are rising in recent days to them into a lot of confidence; Traders aspect also is given priority to with purchasing, shipment is not much; Manufacturers in terms of basic is in a state of on demand to buy goods. So the market clinch a deal the actual deviation. Pure waste spreads still maintain this week in 1500, temporarily did not see a purchase electrolytic copper manufacturer instead of copper scrap.

figure 2: copper cathode and the light spreads figure
3, the downstream market research

the rich treasure of copper team of local cable enterprise starts to do the research, the basic flat wires in July and August starts, total operating at an average of 75. 18%, and total average starts in June 78. 01%, down nearly 3%. Cable enterprise is still in the consumption of season in August, most of the cable companies for the weak market, capacity utilization is still poor. According to investigation, enterprise payment delay serious, weak demand and low price is not the direct effect factors, mainly lies in the shortage of funds, up recovery slow, some even are delayed for half an year, cause most of the enterprise capital flow is limited, under the restriction of capital, enterprises have had to give up risk order, thus collapse, the shutdown. Enterprise also met with some force majeure factors, one is in hangzhou at the G20 summit to make enterprise starts are affected, the second is the strict supervision of environmental regulation, leading to limit production in north China is serious.

another data showed that 2012 - China 2016 wire and cable with copper rod demand growth by about 5% on average, is expected to 2016 at about 2. 5%. This growth is only one 5 of the copper rod production growth, excess capacity into inventory. Thus we can predict the future of a period of main consumption of downstream of the copper in China - Power consumption of inventory pressure. But there is still no a reliable consumption growth, and in the fourth quarter of China's copper demand is still worrying.

4, the futures market analysis and forecast the

the cycle performance of copper of concussion uplink, inside dish fluctuates according to outside dish, but inside dish by slightly greater than outside dish, copper can hold 20 daily average lines has yet to be test, specific shown in figure 3, 4, as follows:

figure 3: the LME day chart trend

figure 4: Shanghai copper 1611 - day K line graph

because of the Mid-Autumn festival holiday domestic trading day only three days this week, news on the long-short intertwined. China, industrial output in August, August urban fixed asset investment, total retail sales of social consumer goods, etc in August economic data are positive changes. Data show that China's economy downward pressure to reduce, and the overall positive copper prices. The United States, 13 in the morning, at the fed into & quot; Silent period & quot; Before the fed governor Lael Brainard to address the last round in Chicago. This time must be mindful that the fed should not be too fast rate of Chicago, market weakened to raise interest rates expected in September, but expectations remain relatively high interest rates in December, the dollar cannot alter, bring resistance to rising prices.

the whole, downstream positive stock before the Mid-Autumn festival, premium continues to expand, the spot support stronger. China's economic recovery of copper prices also formed a certain support, but copper further movements still need to wait for the demand of the market performance, whether can highlight the peak season in late September is characterized by a big focus of recent market. Outside dish regular trading Mid-Autumn festival holidays, and domestic there are other economic data released during holiday, the holiday news more or the good is not clear. Expected short-term shocks, is expected to copper 4630 - run interval Copper 36400-4750, Shanghai 37200, 32500 - copper scrap 33000.
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