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Goldman sachs: Japan policy differentiation against the yen, the dollar rose sharply

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Goldman sachs, said the U. S. central bank, according to the latest resolution of monetary policy in the United States and Japan in the future there will be a clear differentiation: America will raise interest rates in the near future, while Japan committed to quite a long time of monetary easing. Goldman sachs predicts that the next against the yen, the dollar has great appreciation of space.

Goldman sachs points out, although the fed meeting in September without raising interest rates, but hinted that the next few months will have to raise interest rates at a time. The fed said in a statement, the probability of years raising interest rates increase, the risk factors that affect the economic outlook is & other; Close to balance throughout the &; 。 September meeting, there are three commissioners voted against, think the September should be raising interest rates, this is the first time in five years has three committee members to vote for the same reason. But fed officials doves economic forecasts, rates they expected a year once, twice to raise interest rates next year. June meeting, officials are expected to raise interest rates twice this year, next year to raise interest rates three times.

the bank of Japan, they don't have to cut interest rates, but turned to stimulus policies. The most obvious change is: the bank of Japan from quantitative target ( 80 trillion yen) Into pricing goals ( The yield on the 10-year Treasury near zero) 。 Specifically, Japan will implement the yield curve control, adjust short side and long side interest rates, will continue to buy JGBS, until 10 period yields remain near zero. Japan's central bank canceled the Japanese government bonds held by the average maturity goal, is said to continue maintaining growth in the monetary base year 80 trillion yen, but says the monetary base can float, in order to realize the control of the yield curve.

Goldman sachs, said the bank of Japan policy changes, to ease the fears of investors for Japanese bonds scarce, so the market will think Japan sustainability of monetary easing is higher. In addition, the bank of Japan to introduce inflation overshoot commitment, namely expanding the monetary base until inflation steadily above the 2% target, this ensures that the loose persistence.

Goldman sachs points out, although the us central bank after the resolution, the yen rose against the dollar, but this should be temporary, the future will be a sharp reversal. After the expected against the yen, the dollar has a lot further to go.

interest rates team expects to Goldman sachs, by the end of this year, the 10-year Treasury yield was 2%, Japan's 10-year bond yields to zero. The 10-year yield 05%, Germany 0. The 10-year yield 3%, the UK, 1. 25%.
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