Goldman sachs slashed prices expected: even frozen production use
On informal OPEC oil ministers meeting comes as Goldman slashed prices expected.
Goldman sachs analyst Damien Courvalin said in a report released on Monday, the expected oil rebalancing takes much longer to achieve, and expectations of the fourth quarter global excess amount of crude oil by 300000 barrels a day to 400000 barrels a day, at the same time will be in the fourth quarter expect oil prices from $50 a barrel to $43 a barrel.
OPEC members began Monday in Algiers international energy BBS, Wednesday afternoon local time, the oil ministers will hold an informal meeting.
Before the meeting in the oil minister, oil producers into frozen production and not frozen from two parties.
Saudi Arabia says it will support any OPEC internal agreement.
Russia also said, in the hope that production will be frozen at current levels.
And as a representative of the made in against frozen, says Iran, than in the current production levels jelly production, hope to increase production to 4 million barrels a day.
Goldman sachs said in a report, even if the Algiers meeting to reach an agreement, also can only support prices in the short run, global oil supply disruptions in the possibility of smaller, and speculative net long positions is still relatively high, the current crude oil before the end of the year is still a big downside risks to oil prices.
Goldman sachs said: from the uncertainty of future supply and demand balance, reiterated that the prices we need short term fundamentals (
The fundamentals of the weaker)
And given a longer period of fundamental uncertainty is bigger, price will be lower.
the report said, Saudi crude output will appear a seasonal decline before the end of the year, others will not increase, in addition to Libya and Nigeria, OPEC crude oil production will only be in the first quarter of next year to restore growth.
But, given the accident higher output in the third quarter, and new project before the end of the online more clear, and therefore increase global oil supply glut.
although the excess supply of crude oil in the fourth quarter is expected to intensify, Goldman sachs for next year average price of crude oil for 52 dollars/barrel outlook did not change, and the first half of next year is expected to 45 - oil prices
reported that demand growth will continue next year & other;
Keep elastic & throughout;
, while the United States, Mexico, China, production decline, will be in Canada, Russia and the north sea regions such as offset the launch of the new project.