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Guotai junan securities: the dust settles, cobalt purchase or will officially open, cobalt price is expected to be back up

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
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cobalt purchase or will officially open, determine purchase will make supply more nervous, stacking apparent recovery in the second half of the demand, supply and demand significantly improve cobalt is expected to boost prices back up.

abstract

keep adding cobalt plate. The early stage of the continuous fermentation of cobalt purchase or will fall to the ground, we think the purchase if implemented, cobalt raw material supply will be more nervous, superposition of 3 c and electric cars and other consumer recovery, cobalt product inventory is expected to quickly to the whole industry chain, cobalt price will be to pick up. Maintain cobalt plates outperform rating, overweight: huayou cobalt, luoyang molybdenum; Benefit: cold sharp cobalt industry, ShengTun mining, etc.

cobalt purchase or will fall to the ground, has important strategic significance. SMM late on September 9, the SRB will purchase electrolytic cobalt, recently has been part of the smelting enterprise feedback to confirm this message, we think that this means that the early stage of the continuous fermentation of cobalt collection and storage, or will the dust settles, officially opened the curtain.

in terms of necessity, we believe that the purchase has important strategic significance: (1) cobalt has important application in high temperature alloy and super alloy, and the latter as the field of aeronautics and astronautics engine such as core components of important components, and cobalt purchase will have important military strategy, especially under the current situation of the increasingly complex international relations was especially obvious; (2) cobalt supply instability and overall scarcity of resources. Cobalt supply 80% of the world from Dr Congo, smelting capacity almost concentrated in China, and 90% of cobalt in China are imported. So for China such a cobalt resources are scarce, collection and storage for the national strategic reserves have absolute meaning.

purchase will make supply more nervous, cobalt price rise is expected to regain momentum. We can judge if purchase really fall to the ground, will have a far-reaching influence on industry supply and demand and price.

supply: domestic cobalt metal production of about 9000 tons in 2019, equivalent to about 800 tons, monthly production in terms of short-term is expected before the purchase of 2000 tons, will produce great influence to the short-term domestic cobalt metal supply, besides considering the early stage of the cobalt raw materials transportation blocked has made domestic supply more nervous, if the purchasing and fall to the ground, the supply will be in short supply;

demand side: China, Japan and South Korea during the first half of the big three lithium battery power by health event haze, integral cobalt dropped significantly, purchase quantity into the second half of the 3 c consumer electronics and new energy vehicles overall demand is expected to gradually recover, cobalt significantly boost demand. Supply and demand pattern significantly improve posture is expected to regain power cobalt price rise.

we maintain the previous price is looking up to 400000 / tons of judgment: 1) collection and storage and transportation is blocked power, cobalt raw material shortages will gradually to cobalt products and electric conduction of cobalt salts. The cobalt raw material supply nervous, obviously rough coefficient of cobalt from 60% up to 75% now, during the first half of the electricity cobalt and apparent after the previous prices, reflects the shortage of the raw material is still in the cobalt from cobalt product conduction process, and the purchase will no doubt provide strong support for electricity price of cobalt, cobalt price is expected to regain rally, (2) we believe that the decline in cobalt supply health event influence short-term hard to fully recover, judge the price increase of cobalt sustainability is stronger, or more than expected.
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