How to measure the housing bubble? Look at people leverage
the bank's chief economist, said lu zhengwei, suppress the real estate bubble, also is to curb real estate related leveraged rising too fast. The longitudinal transverse comparison and history, the residents lever will rise, with the development of economy and natural the crux of the problem lies in how to define & other; Fast & throughout; 。 And the current Chinese residents lever gap gradually upward, but with the line has a certain distance. If & other; Residents of lever gap & quot; Is positive, it shows that residents levers to increase faster than the speed of the long-term trend, increased risk of bubbles.
historically longitudinal data, both from the horizontal comparison and residents department lever will rise, with the development of economy and natural lu zhengwei, chief economist at societe generale, said Li Miao.
the key question is, how should discern lever rise is a healthy residents department or too fast? Industrial research through calculation & other; Residents of lever gap & throughout; Pointed out that the Chinese residents' leverage level and a certain distance away from the line.
according to industrial research and analysis, although Chinese residents lever gap level is higher than the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada and Britain and other developed economies, but has yet to reach two high standard deviation. It is worth noting that China's red line ( The standard deviation of the mean + 2) Up to 8. 9%, significantly higher than that of the developed economies - 3% 7 4%, with South Korea. Relatively close to 2%. The reasons behind the possibility is that the faster the economic growth, the residents' income growth faster, so residents can afford to leverage greater volatility.
industrial research points out, & other; Residents of lever gap & throughout; Better early warning for several times in the history of the United States and Japan real estate bubble, also with Australia, Canada, South Korea and the UK economies such as house prices have good correlation. This article from the societe generale securities report from the following three examples:
the inhabitants of the United States lever gap peak by about 3%, just above the residents lever gap means 2 standard. Us house prices growth lever gap is related with the residents, in fact, in some important peak, the former part even ahead of the latter, for example, house prices in America have peaked in the third quarter of 2005, but residents lever gap continued to rise until the fourth quarter of 2007. But residents lever gap peak point still earlier than bear stearns and lehman's bankruptcy and other major risk events. It is important to note that at the end of 2015 U. S. residents lever gap and rise to a higher position, whether this indicates the possibility of America's housing market correction is on the rise?
Japanese residents lever gap has two breakthrough lever gap means two standard, is 1973 and 1990 respectively. After the two point, Japan's real estate market are the significant adjustment, visible residents lever gap to measure the risk of Japanese real estate bubble, also successfully predicted the bust point. At the end of 2015 Japanese residents lever gap is still in the low, less risk of real estate bubbles. Australia
the inhabitants of Australia lever gap compared with house prices, especially in recent 10 years is especially significant relationship. By the end of 2015, Australia residents lever gap has grown to nearly two standard deviation level high, may mean that prices rising speed will slow.
but, for the Chinese residents mortgage leverage, haitong securities analyst Jiang Chao, Gu Xiao roar, should have a different view.
Jiang Chao: Chinese residents mortgage leverage is really not low!
haitong securities analyst Jiang Chao, Gu Xiao roar, should say, Chinese residents is not low leverage, and pay and new mortgage burden over Japan's current level is high, as the history of the United States. Risk and leverage has a huge real estate bubble, is highly vigilant!
Chinese residents purchase leveraged? Haitong securities index was investigated from three aspects:
from the stock of housing: after considering accumulation fund, 16 years Chinese residents income ratio will reach 67%, with the United States, Japan, the current level. If according to the current growth is sustained, it will be more than 100% in 2019, and reached the historical peak. Micro survey data also verify the Chinese residents is not low leverage.
from the mortgage payments: after considering accumulation fund, assume that China mortgage average remaining term of 15 years, 16 years China residents mortgage payments were accounted for the proportion of disposable income has reached the peak of America's history, residents' solvency is the big test.
from the mortgage increase: considering accumulation fund, after 16 years Chinese residents purchase was 50%, and the marginal leverage with the United States subprime crisis was the highest. And new mortgage as a share of GDP is as the peak of America's history, according to the risk of real estate bubble is near.