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In September the fed minutes: a few members think interest rates will come faster

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Beijing time on Thursday morning, the federal reserve announced on September the FOMC meeting minutes. Several members believe interest rates will come faster, hawkish members worry delay rate can lead to a recession, or affect the fed's credibility. The Wall Street journal, said the fed meeting in September for a short period of time to raise interest rates to lay the foundation, but for the specific rate point, large internal divisions.

, according to the minutes of the fed meeting in September, has paved the way for the short time to raise interest rates. But the fed when will the next action, also did not coordinate. Some participants felt that a sustained improvement in Labour markets and the increased economic activity, so relatively quickly raising interest rates is appropriate. While other participants tend to wait for more convincing evidence, such as evidence of inflation working towards the fed 2% goal.

the fed held in September, in line with market expectations, said to wait for more evidence. But the fed's rate increase probability increase in points out, lattice figure shows officials years is expected to raise interest rates again. This year, the federal reserve left two meetings, November and December, respectively. Market is most likely to raise interest rates in December is expected, since November meeting is before the U. S. presidential election.

September meeting, there are three commissioners voted against it, they are respectively the Kansas fed chairman Esther George, Cleveland fed chairman Loretta Mester and Boston fed President Eric Rosengren. Three of them believe the fed should be raising interest rates in September meeting. After many years, Rosengren is one of the most dovish fed chairman. September meeting voted against the number of officials set up to since the meeting in December 2014.

” Don't raise rates camp & throughout; Thought that the Labour market and further improve space, while the unemployment rate fell to the fed thought level for a long time, but the labor participation rate increases, the mean of the Labour market is still in the absorption to employment. Previously, the fed chairman yellen and New York fed President Dudley had agree with this statement. September non-farm report also confirmed this.

” Interest rates camp & throughout; Think, continue to maintain loose monetary policy, will lead to the Labour market is too tight, it will lead to inflation above the fed's target of 2% level, the officials may have to speed up the tightening monetary policy, to curb economic expansion. The committee also enumerates the past example: when the unemployment rate is lower than the normal level for a long time, tightening monetary policy, often accompanied by economic recession and rising unemployment.

from the minutes of the fed officials don't think what a big risk to the American economy. Most committee members thought the risk factors that affect the economy close to balance, half the economy likely to become better, half could be worse. Several members believe that the risk of the fade back in the UK. September meeting, the fed to risk statement is & other; Close to balance & throughout; 。 Compared with before the meeting, the fed worries about the risk factors that affect the economy in smaller, this makes them more likely to raise interest rates by the end of the year.

many members think there is no sign that upward pressure on inflation, or inflation to improve slowing progress.

before the economy is overheating, the unemployment rate can fall to the low, officials are under a lot of differences. Participants generally expect, unemployment rate will be lower than the normal level for a long time in the years to come. However, for how many idle in the Labour market, officials are not agree.

since September the fed meeting, the overall economic situation. September non-farm payrolls report, more and more people back to the labor force, wage growth is increasing; Consumer confidence is at a higher level; Manufacturing activity also rebound.

but also have something to worry about: market as investors worried about Britain withdrew the pounds over 30 years of low, it will promote a stronger dollar, could the U. S. economy. In addition, the international monetary fund ( 国际货币基金组织(IMF) Downgraded forecasts for U. S. economic growth, U. S. economic growth this year is expected to 1. 6%, expected in July to 2. 2%; The United States economic growth next year is expected to 2. 2%, expected in July to 2. 5%.

released on September meeting minutes, after U. S. stocks edged lower after the rise, the dollar index down first and then rebounded. Look from the federal funds interest rate futures, traders believe the fed FOMC meeting in November, the possibility of a rate of 11%; The possibility of a rate of 66% in December.
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