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July U. S. employment market conditions index ( LMCI) 1

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
The federal reserve ( 美联储) On Monday, On August 8,) In July, according to the American job market condition index ( LMCI) Is 1, higher than the expected value of 0, after six months of negative interval after finally recorded positive, combined with the latest number of non-farm strong, raising interest rates expected or further warming.

analyst at barclays capital, said: & other; LMCI statistics using a dynamic model of 19 Labour market indicators, is that the fed used to comprehensively evaluate the index of the employment situation. Every time the fed data only reflect the variation of monthly, so we can compare the data with the general characteristics of the cycle of economic development to understand the performance of the labor market. ”

the U. S. department of labor, 痛单位) The United States, according to data released on Friday July payrolls increased 25. Increase in 18, 50000 people, far more than market expectations. 00000 people, 28 former value increases. 70000 people; At the same time, the unemployment rate in July 4. 9%, is expected to 4. 8%, the first value is 4. 9%. The labor department will also be June non-farm payrolls to 29. 20000 people. At the same time, another bright spot is July non-farm wage growth accelerated. In July, according to the American average hourly wage growth rate of 0. 3%; 2 is an annual rate of growth. 6%, continue to its highest growth since after the crisis; It also reflects a tightening in the job market at the same time, has long been known as foot-dragging wages showed signs of improvement.

the fed has said the index than non-agricultural to better reflect the real condition of the labor market. For now, however, the general economic doesn't seem to keep up with the strong performance of the job market. Although U. S. consumer spending also recently recorded a rise, but is restrained, enterprise investment in the United States GDP growth is far worse than expected. Fed governor Powell in the financial times in an interview published Monday, said he was more concerned about the condition of the weak us economic growth than in the past is likely to last longer, America's potential growth rate may be lower, suggested to the fed's current on the U. S. economy growth expectations, real interest rates will be lower.

Powell at the same time, points out that the U. S. economy is still facing many overseas bring downside risks, in other parts of the world under the condition of weak demand, the fed may hard to raise interest rates. He added that the fed wants to raise interest rates, strong domestic demand and employment growth, inflation of nearly 2%, there is no obvious risk events around the world, these three conditions are short of one cannot.
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