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Ni week review: Aaron nickel or concussion uplink (next week 6. 13 - 6. 17)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Conclusion: this week's nickel volatile trading near $9000 / ton, Shanghai jinchuan nickel spot market clinch a deal the interval is 6. 93 - 7. 020000 yuan/ton. Macro level risks have released many, expects the next cycle of nickel concussion uplink, major trading range or - in 8850 $9300 / ton.

a, review and analysis of nickel prices trend

figure 1: the LME three-month nickel market day K line
this cycle nickel shakeouts, three trading days before Aaron nickel moderate higher, dropped sharply on Thursday, Asian trading hours on Friday to modestly, weeks trading range is 8245 - $8585 / ton, price range is only $340 / ton. Shanghai nickel contract trading range is 65140-1605 67340 yuan/ton, contract trading range is 66300-1609 68290 yuan/ton. Shanghai market spot nickel clinch a deal in 65300 - in Russia 66900 yuan/ton, jinchuan nickel clinch a deal in the 66200 - 67600 yuan/ton, jinchuan nickel plate factory price cut 600 yuan/ton, 66700 yuan/ton.


this week base metals trading relatively scattered clues, different metal prices up or down direction. China, commodity prices have rebounded after the Spring Festival, cause producers to review production plan, some manufacturers have already again, investors worried about before had high hopes of supply contract may not be achieved, the price of the metal under pressure. At the same time, large inventory pressure, the market outlook for China's industrial metals demand concerns to interfere with the market. Comprehensive look, some disadvantages side of supply and demand situation of metal prices last week. The United States, the federal reserve meeting minutes showed that it is in no hurry to raise interest rates, the dollar index fell, provide support for dollar-denominated commodities.

2, nickel prices trend projections next week

the international team, according to data of nickel - 1 Global nickel market demand rose 3 in April. 4%, output fell by 0. 9%, the supply of 7100 tons, the same period of 2015 to 19900 tons of excess. The global original nickel production in April 16. 430000 tons, the demand of 17. 440000 tons, the shortage of quantity expansion to 1. 010000 tons.

the world metal bureau of statistics data show that 1-2016 Global refining nickel production in April to 56. 80000 tons, the demand for 57. 70000 tons, which is 1 - There is a shortage of 8800 tons of April. Among them, the global refining nickel production in April 14. 550000 tons, the demand for 15. 70000 tons. 1 - Global nickel mine production in April fell by 1. 930000 tons to 69. 010000 tons.

the two institutions, according to the current global nickel supply and demand structure is changing, we speculate that this year's global nickel market is expected to be over 4 years in a row of surplus situation, there is shortage of 50000 tons, the market for nickel inflection point. But consider that the LME with huge amount nickel stocks on the Shanghai futures exchange, is expected to nickel market may be hard to feel the material out of stock.

has issued by The General Office of the State Council document that requires sound metal extraction solution reserve system, improve the government reserves and commercial reserves combined metal extraction solution of reserve mechanism, appropriate increase reserve part of the metal extraction solution. Domestic nickel resources, external dependency and overseas nickel resource acquisition difficulty increase, the price close to the bottom of the cycle at the same time, we believe that the increase of nickel reserves have extremely strong rationality, in the second half of the nickel stockpile has the potential to expand.

comprehensive and large capacity in cash losses state, nickel producer production and supply side started to shrink. Although still subject to huge amount nickel stocks, but global nickel market supply and demand structure is slowly improving. Long look, nickel prices downward space is limited, center of gravity or move up steadily. Next week, macro risk has released many, expects the next cycle of nickel concussion uplink, mainly trading range or - in 8850 $9300 / ton.
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