Ni week review: expected next week nickel prices will remain strong, 9. 05 - 9. 09)
graph: the LME three-month nickel market day K line
the continuation of last week and a half weeks after, this cycle nickel, edged up steadily trend on the whole, the LME three-month nickel trading range is 9960 - $10370 / ton; Shanghai nickel main contract trading range is 79500-1701 81550 yuan/ton. Technical graphics, LME three-month nickel and nickel in Shanghai 1701 contracts are at 40 - day moving average repression.
Shanghai jinchuan nickel spot market clinch a deal the interval is 78800 - 80000 yuan/ton, weeks for an average of 79390 yuan/ton, for an average of 78690 yuan/ton last week. Jinchuan ex-factory price from 78500 yuan/ton to 80000 yuan/ton. Russian nickel clinch a deal the interval is 78400 - 79600 yuan/ton, weeks for an average of 78990 yuan/ton, for an average of 78190 yuan/ton last week.
U. S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday significantly below expectations, and to ease market concerns over the fed's recent interest rate increase, provide support for commodity; The dollar index dropped sharply also boost dollar-denominated commodities. This week, the official Chinese manufacturing data to improve, at the same time, policymakers, position or more fiscal measures, improve the industrial metals demand forecast.
2, nickel prices trend outlook
the Philippines next week end of environmental protection check, or have more published by shutting down the mine. Macquarie expects the Philippines nickel production will drop by 8. 50000 tons ( Metal tons) 3, pull the world nickel supply low. 3%. Overall, the Philippines, the environmental protection verification for the medium-term effects of nickel has a basic implementation. However, expect the Philippines mining policy tightening direction remains the same, it will be a long-term impact to the world nickel supply.
1- In July China imported from Indonesia has 390706 tons of nickel iron ( Physical tons) And four times more than the same period last year. From Chinese companies in Indonesia nickel iron production schedule, 10 - December will have a new project trial production. The number of China's imports from Indonesia nickel iron, nickel mines, or enough to make up for the Philippines side supply brought about by the loss, Indonesia nickel iron delta pin to nickel prices long-term strength. 1 -
data, according to ubs In July China 300 series stainless steel production rose 10% from a year earlier, 1 - In July as a whole stainless steel production increased by 8%, data are better than expected, most agencies in early stainless steel production accident in the pattern is expected to continue in the second half of the year.
the summer end step by step, at the same time, the central environmental protection inspection work come to an end, hangzhou G20 summit, the maintenance equipment and other production required stainless steel factory will production in succession, nickel downstream demand is expected to appear a certain degree of recovery, will provide certain support for nickel prices trend.
in conclusion, the reduction of the supply in the Philippines and Indonesia nickel supply end increase the balance of supply, demand is expected to improve, the level of supply and demand for nickel prices moderate. A macro level, the U. S. economy remains on track to recovery, the fed's style or tightens monetary policy; China's policy continues to seek balance in the steady growth and deepen the reform. Above technical graphics, LME three-month nickel face resistance near 10500 dollars/ton. Comprehensive, next week is expected to nickel prices overall trends or strong, but rising space or limited, mainly trading range in 10100 - is expected $10650 / ton.