Ni week review: high nickel rushed down next week or into shock ( 5. 03 - 5. 6)
figure 1: the LME three-month nickel market day K line
there are only four trading days this week, nickel prices soared, Aaron nickel once rose to $9700 / ton, subsequent buying power is not enough, then back weeks trading range is 8920 - $9700 / ton, Shanghai nickel main contract trading range is 69900-1609 76390 yuan/ton.
the spot market, spot market this week Shanghai jinchuan nickel clinch a deal the interval is 70000 - 72800 yuan/ton, the Russian nickel clinch a deal the interval is 69500 - 72600 yuan/ton. Jinchuan group by electrolysis nickel board ex-factory price 500 yuan/ton to 70500 yuan/ton, weeks the highest to 72800 yuan/ton.
recipient in commodity market bullish atmosphere thick, April nickel prices steadily upward, become one of the best varieties of base metal. But under the premise of not present significant improvement in fundamentals, rising accumulated more risk, also may enter the nickel prices upward, weak environment in the surrounding market, selling assets concentrated in May 5th date nickel fell sharply.
2, nickel prices trend forecast next week
fundamentals of supply and demand of nickel, although the exchange volume inventory needs a much longer time to digest, but from a dynamic point of view, manufacturers make there is a shortage of monthly global nickel market has already cut. Inco team said nickel production to 2016 from 198 last year. 30000 tons dropped to 191. 30000 tons, while the consumption from 1. 89 million tons to 196 last year. The excess supply 20000 tons, the end of the previous four years.
from domestic stage, stainless steel prices rose sharply, will be a boost to the stainless steel factory to inventory activities, to increase consumer demand for nickel; At the same time, domestic nickel pig iron prices, or increase the capacity of nickel pig iron plants release, but we estimate that can increase the production of nickel pig iron or limited. Integrated both situation, prospect of supply and demand of nickel is expected to a slight improvement.
after this week's fall, nickel has released a lot of risk. Technical graphics, nickel uplink channel are already broken. Integrated macroscopic level and industry supply and demand factors, nickel prices are expected to take a period of time will turn into shock, Aaron main trading range or nickel - in 8750 $9350 / ton.