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Ni week review: next week Aaron nickel, low and stabilise ( 8. 22 - 8. 26)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Conclusion: nickel in this cycle down, Shanghai spot jinchuan nickel clinch a deal in July. 680000 - 80000. Jinchuan ex-factory price cut from 80000 to 7. 750000. Next week's nickel continue downward looking for support, the main trading range or in 9400 - $10100 / ton. Nickel market review

graph: the LME three-month nickel market day K line

this cycle nickel fell, Aaron nickel trading range is 9810 - $10360 / ton, as of Friday afternoon, fell $460 / ton from last week. Shanghai nickel 1701 in the first half of the main contract performance in strong, a sideways shock, tumbled on Thursday, weeks trading range is 77550 - 82140 yuan/ton.
Shanghai jinchuan nickel spot market clinch a deal the interval is 76800 - 80000 yuan/ton, weeks for an average of 78690 yuan/ton, for an average of 79690 yuan/ton last week. Jinchuan ex-factory price from 80000 yuan/ton to 77500 yuan/ton. Russian nickel clinch a deal the interval is 76300 - 79500 yuan/ton, weeks for an average of 78190 yuan/ton, for an average of 79270 yuan/ton last week.
multiple factors lead to this week, copper, nickel and other metal weakness: first of all, fed officials frequently, concerns ahead of the fed raising interest rates, weigh on the commodity market; Second, China's weak economic data and market revived worries about metal demand outlook; Again, crude oil prices continued to callback, also weigh on prices.
2, nickel prices trend forecast next week
on August 26, the attention of the global market in Jackson Hole meeting, the meeting has always been regarded as the world's central Banks, especially the fed's policy towards an indicator of next stage. It is not clear how to make a statement, chairman of the federal reserve, but the agency is expected to more yellen the said it intends to slant doves.
China, weak economic data, markets expect more stimulus measures, but integrated in the near future the overall situation, significantly easing monetary policy space is not big, or have more fiscal measures. At the same time, prices continued upward pressure society, signs a second-tier cities or a more stringent control measures.
proliferation imports this year China Indonesia nickel iron, China's imports from Indonesia in July 74493 tons of nickel iron, more than five times in the same period last year. 1 - July imports 390706 tons, more than four times the size of the same period last year. As far as we know, Indonesia will have more nickel iron works of the late production.
Indonesia nickel iron supply continues to increase, or enough to make up for the nickel ore supply gap caused by the mining policy. On the one hand, the nickel ore supply reduce; On the other hand, the Indonesian nickel iron supply increase. Is expected in the future for a long time, nickel will seek a balance between them.
trend point of view, in the process of nickel in the callback. The correction is for market since early June, belong to the intermediate levels callback, the bearish market atmosphere, the next or looking for a support near $9500 / ton, and stabilizing, overall trend or a weak shocks, mainly trading range in 9400 - is expected $10100 / ton.
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