Ni week review: next week Aaron nickel up (after the callback first 9. 18 - 9. 23)
graph: the LME three-month nickel market day K line
this cycle of nickel, nickel break through $10500 / ton. Aaron nickel rising from Monday through Thursday, and Thursday's rising to 10655 dollars/tons, Asian trading Friday time to retreat, weeks trading range is 9745 - $10655 / ton. This week, the Shanghai nickel main contract trading range is 77960-1701 82560 yuan/ton.
Shanghai jinchuan nickel spot market clinch a deal the interval is 77800 - 81400 yuan/ton, weeks for an average of 79700 yuan/ton, for an average of 78217 yuan/ton last week. Jinchuan ex-factory price of 78200 yuan/ton to 80800 yuan/ton. Russian nickel clinch a deal the interval is 77500 - 81100 yuan/ton, weeks for an average of 79400 yuan/ton, for an average of 77817 yuan/ton last week.
this week, the influencing factors of nickel market mainly concentrated in two points: one is the environmental news continuously released in the Philippines, the world nickel supply shortages caused panic, market continues to hype nickel prices; Second, the fed meeting this week, announced that interest rates remain unchanged, the market is expected to increase strength is expected in the next few years to the, support commodity prices higher.
2, nickel prices trend forecast next week
according to customs data, China's nickel ore imports from the Philippines in August 416. 60000 tons, the year-on-year increase in 9. 38%. The 1 - From the Philippines imports of nickel ore 1798 in August. 70000 tons, compared with the big minus 21. 29%. Data show that in August the Philippines environmental protection verification closure of nickel mines, has yet to the impact of China's imports of nickel ore.
the official said, there are still more than 10 mines will be shut down, the specific time announced on September 26th, we hypothesized that shut down the mine is still mainly nickel mine. In October but it is worth noting that the nickel miners region will gradually enter the rainy season, a lot of nickel mine, if not be forced to shut down, also cannot transport. And closed mines after rectification, is likely to reopen.
so, multi-angle view should be the Philippines supply impact environmental protection verification. But we should see, even if there is no environmental protection verification, the nickel ore shipments is significantly lower. A massive excessive mining because, often a few years ago, the Philippine domestic nickel ore reserves of exploitation value, especially the high nickel a significant decline.
global nickel market still is in the process of from the excess to shortage. Bureau of statistics data show that the metal 1 - Global nickel supply shortage 8 July. 950000 tons. 1 - Refined nickel production totaled 102 in July. 90000 tons, the demand for 111. 90000 tons. Slightly increased demand, production decline, it is turned to the main reason for the shortage of nickel market.
a macro level, the fed did not raise interest rates in September meeting, doves and speech, provides support for commodity short-term movements. We speculate, however, to balance the market expectations, until the next meeting, the fed official comments as a whole will slant the hawks. China, expect the possibility of a massive new measures to boost the economy, will be given priority to with the implementation of infrastructure projects.
comprehensive, level of supply and demand will continue to provide support for medium-term nickel prices trend, but the future for a period of time may lack the message the major induced factors. Technical graphics, Aaron nickel breakthrough short-term resistance, average system to improve, but excessive short-term gains, there are corrections demand, is expected next week's nickel ended higher after initially falling as major trading range or - in 10300 $10900 / ton.