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Ni week review: nickel focus or slightly up next week ( 5. 23 - 5. 27)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Conclusion: the cycle of nickel shakeouts, Aaron nickel trading range is 8330 - $8520 / ton, Shanghai jinchuan nickel spot market clinch a deal the interval is 66000 - 66700 yuan/ton. Expects the next cycle of nickel shock centre of gravity is slightly up, Aaron main trading range or nickel - in 8300 $8800 / ton. Nickel market review

figure 1: the LME three-month nickel market day K line

this week news surface calm, the lack of a clear direction dominant factor, nickel sideways shock, Aaron nickel trading futures contracts in March 8330 - $8520 / ton, center of gravity down, slightly interval is further narrowed last week, less than $200 / ton. The Shanghai futures exchange nickel main contract trading range is 66350-1609 68780 yuan/ton.
this week, the domestic spot prices trend is relatively weak, the spot market in Shanghai jinchuan nickel clinch a deal the interval is 66000 - 66700 yuan/ton, the Russian nickel clinch a deal the interval is 65500 - Price 66200 yuan/ton, 27 daily from Friday down 1600 yuan/ton, weeks jinchuan nickel ex-factory price cut 1200 yuan/ton.
2, nickel prices trend forecast next week
nickel not forging 4 Chinese imports in April. 90000 tons, has increased 169% year-on-year. 1 - April imports about 15. 80000 tons, has increased 271% year-on-year. 1 - April nickel imports most of the time is profitable, dealers to increase imports, by inside and outside the spread profit, is one of the reasons for the increase of import.
news that countries in the first half of the year a large number of purchases to nickel, collection and storage, or add another important reason to nickel imports. Insiders say the first half of the year for purchasing target is estimated at 50000 tons, the world is more than 60% in operating capacity loss, nickel prices are low enough; Besides Indonesia limit undressed ore exports, China's imports of nickel ore for increased difficulty, we suspect that the second half of the country or is still a certain amount of purchase.
purchasing and help reduce nickel market surplus condition, but the real improvement of nickel supply and demand still need to market plays a leading role. 1 - according to data from the international nickel research group There is a shortage of 6000 tons of march global nickel market; World metal statistics bureau data showed 1 - this year March the world there is a shortage of 8400 tons of nickel. Apparently, the shortage of periodic quantity nickel market at present, combined with national purchase quantity, really reverse global nickel excess pattern is still far away. But the market has been positive, global nickel consumption of moderate growth at the same time, continue to lower prices have been on the supply side, surplus situation is expected to get continuous improvement in the coming two years. Comprehensive,
the current prices of the big background for: huge amounts of inventory to global nickel market short-term difficult material shortage, the overall excess pressure is still large, but the supply growth has the market turnaround, surplus situation will gradually ease. Medium-term nickel or continue to search for clues, from the macro news will start next week figures released on May, or to provide more guidance, is expected to Aaron nickel trading center of gravity, or a move this week, mainly interval or in 8300 - $8800 / ton.
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