Ni week review: nickel prices next week or shock bottoming ( 5. 16 - 5. 20)
figure 1: the LME three-month nickel market day K line
this cycle of nickel market mainly digest the previous data and time, short-term market funds game leading, rebound fatigue, back slightly the situation on the whole, Aaron ni march futures contract trading range is 8565 - $8805 / ton, price range less than $300 / ton, the Shanghai futures exchange nickel main contract trading range is 67770-1609 69880 yuan/ton.
this week Shanghai jinchuan nickel spot market price range is 67600 - 68800 yuan/ton, the Russian nickel price range is 67200 - 68400 yuan/ton. Jinchuan nickel plate cut 300 yuan/ton, weeks the highest to 68800 yuan/ton.
2, nickel prices trend forecast next week
the international team, according to data of nickel - 1 March there is a shortage of 6000 tons of nickel markets around the world, global nickel demand growth. 4. 2% to 47. 790000 tons, the production decline 0. 3% to 47. 730000 tons; Bureau of statistics data show that the metal 1 - this year Global refining nickel production in March to 40. 980000 tons, the demand for 41. The shortage of 820000 tons, 8400 tons.
demand moderate growth, supply subject to low nickel prices weak growth, in the first quarter of this year there is a shortage of periodic nickel markets around the world. LME and maintain huge amount nickel stocks on the Shanghai futures exchange, periodic shortage is hard to make substantial supplies nickel market, but that means the world nickel supply and demand structure started to marginal improvement, to provide certain support for nickel prices.
a macro level, published this week by the federal reserve meeting minutes, if the future data shows the U. S. economy are improving, may raise interest rates in June meeting, moreover always dove of the New York fed President William Dudley said, as long as the future data back on track as expected, the federal reserve recovery rate is suitable in summer, the federal reserve to raise interest rates is expected to rise sharply. Although the probability of June to raise interest rates now still is not high, but the expected rapid heating, or for the future for a period of time in commodity prices.
comprehensive, macro and short-term supply and demand level to differ, the market next week is expected to seek a balance between the two. Graphics technology point of view, the current period of falling prices during the second half of the nickel in the round, and the short term is unlikely to cause a new sharp drop in, next week is expected to nickel shock bottoming, and the main trading range or in 8350 - $8850 / ton.