Nickel monthly report: October break (nickel prices or high 2016. 09)
a, review and analysis of nickel prices trend in September
September nickel concussion uplink, in the months after falling to their lowest level for two months, then quickly rebound, the surge to $10875 / ton. Shanghai nickel main contract trading range is 77960 - 83610 yuan/ton. Shanghai jinchuan nickel spot market clinch a deal the interval is 77300 - 82600 yuan/ton, the monthly average of about 79560 yuan/ton, from the previous month average price down about 320 yuan/ton; Russian nickel clinch a deal the interval is 76800 - 82300 yuan/ton, the monthly average of about 79200 yuan/ton, from the previous month average price down about 280 yuan/ton.
graph: the LME three-month nickel charts
the global shortage of nickel market to further expand. The international team of nickel ( INSG） In July, according to data released the world nickel supply shortage of 5200 tons, the revised June for a shortage of 12100 tons, seven months before the last global nickel for the excess supply of 53600 tons. The metal statistics ( WBMS) Data show that 1 - Global nickel supply shortage 8 July. 950000 tons. Excess supply in 2015, the year 4. 520000 tons.
the Philippines announced 20 mines shut down again, now the Philippines has closed 30 mines, according to the production of last year, was temporarily shut down production of the mine 55 of the Philippines nickel production. 5%. Global nickel supply shortage concerns underpinned nickel prices rose to its highest since two months.
the fed meeting in September is the focus of attention. Before the meeting, doves or hawk, the result of the meeting point of more chaos, risk aversion, the price of the metal pressure, nickel fell to a low. But the market quickly digest, and ultimately the federal reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, nickel to return to the upward trend. Nickel prices trend
2, 10 month
macro level. In September the fed meeting not raising interest rates, and meeting the overall tone doves. But the U. S. economic recovery to keep in good condition, to balance the market expectations, before the next policy-setting meeting, the fed officials related statements or partial hawks. China, the economy showed signs of recovery, but the sustainability is questionable. Expect new mass are unlikely to boost the economy measures will be given priority to with the implementation of infrastructure projects.
1- Imports from the Philippines in China in August 17. 99 million tons of nickel ore, big minus 21% over the previous year, rose 9% in August. Data suggests that environmental protection verification closure of nickel mines in the Philippines, has yet to the impact of China's imports of nickel ore. According to the latest news in the Philippines is temporarily shut down production of nickel mines account for more than 55% of its total production last year, it was not shut down the mine can have how many production, when production.
but it is worth noting that the Philippines nickel miners region gradually into the rainy season, a lot of nickel mine, if not be forced to shut down, also cannot transport. Should see the influence of the Philippines environmental protection verification from multiple perspectives. In addition, after a few years ago the massive excess exploitation, the Philippines nickel mines of mining value decline. Even if there is no environmental protection verification, the nickel ore shipments is significantly lower.
global nickel needs small growth, the decline in output. Comprehensive statistics, turned to a shortage of basic international agencies to nickel market has reached a consensus. The Philippines environmental protection verification events still not finished, will still be a focus of the attention. But no matter whether to shut down, the nickel ore shipments are difficult to achieve in the past two years.
the market level, the new closure of information push nickel prices shock rise in September. But because of the complexity of the environmental protection verification influence Philippines, nickel near the previous high, in the short term money lose its motive force of further pushing up prices. Comprehensive macro factors, is expected in October, nickel is given priority to with high break, mainly trading range or in 1 - 1. $10000 / ton.