Nickel prices or high and volatile nickel monthly report: 8 month
a, review and analysis of nickel prices trend in July
continues the previous month, July volatile nickel prices, nickel most soared to $10900 / ton; Shanghai nickel 1609 contracts the soared to 84080 yuan/ton, 1701 contracts the soared to 85500 yuan/ton. Shanghai jinchuan nickel clinch a deal the interval in 73500 - the spot market 82100 yuan/ton, the monthly average of about 79000 yuan/ton, from the previous month average price increase of about 6400 yuan/ton; Russian nickel month average price 78600 yuan/ton, from the previous month average price rises of about 6400 yuan/ton.
graph: the LME three-month nickel charts
global nickel market expanded periodic shortage degree, limit policy continuous fermentation, and the Philippines are the main factors driving prices rise in July. , according to the international team of nickel by refining output cuts, in May this year the world nickel supply and demand gap widened to 11200 tons. Global primary nickel production may decline to 16. 470000 tons, and nickel consumption is slightly increase to 17. 590000 tons.
the Philippines nickel ore supply is the focus of market attention, unrestrained mining for a long time, the parts of the production of high grade nickel ore which can. Chinese customs data show that in June this year China's nickel ore imports from the Philippines 346. 50000 tons, down 18% year on year. In the first half of the total imports of nickel ore, 1067. 30000 tons, dramatically reduced 24% year-on-year.
at the same time, the Philippines unchecked mining for a long time also had a bad influence on environment and society, local popular discontent, sparked July cumulative nickel mines shut down several projects in the Philippines, the Philippine authorities are expected to further measures to limit the nickel ore mining.
2, nickel prices trend forecast in August
the world nickel stocks are still huge, but the market is more focused on the changes of supply and demand in the future. Since this year, with monthly meter, there is a shortage of continuous nickel markets around the world, if the gap continues to expand, the global nickel market will enter a state of accelerated to inventory, which will provide nickel prices continue to rise.
the Philippines project in nickel mines shut down, the future does not meet the requirements of the mine is expected through systemic measures improvement, though still can production, but production will be affected. Data show that the Philippines nickel ore supply global accounted for over 20%. Goldman sachs said the next six months, the Philippines nickel mineral makes possible to shrink by a quarter. We expect that the Philippines will provide continued support for the second half of the nickel supply problem.
but, after 6 - Aaron nickel during July nickel prices continue to rise, the highest rise nearly 30%, the early stage of the approach of capital gains the space is larger, cash earnings will rise. Comprehensive, is expected to give priority to with high and volatile nickel prices trend in August, is expected to Aaron nickel mainly trading range in 10000 - $11000 / ton.