Nickel supply contract to support Shanghai short-term strength
guangzhou futures research report pointed out that trade position, from the point of data has more than 1701 contract short positions, money flows bullish. But many empty seats in the increase or decrease in now, still obvious differences, the main change is the founder medium-term futures, yongan futures seats, etc.
futures precious metals analyst at everbright exhibition dapeng, said Shanghai nickel strong since last week, there were two main reasons: first, from the industrial chain, nickel iron still in short supply, and nickel price is high, nickel iron callback rate is not too big, if the decline of the electrolytic nickel, & other; Low nickel + electrolytic nickel & throughout; Collocation is applied to the stainless steel edge, will provoke downstream stainless steel smelter buying interest, and will bring electrolytic nickel must support; Second, is also the most direct reason: repeatedly delayed the mine environmental review results to be announced in the Philippines, the early low prices offered the opportunity to buy the game instead.
according to relevant information, the environment and natural resources minister lopes said that the Philippines may be in violation of environmental regulations, citing further shut down at least 10 mines. The Philippines, the second largest nickel producer, warned that closures will lead to more mine supply interruption of markets such as China.
“ Although there is a reverse signs global nickel excess supply and demand forecast, but has not been significantly narrowed, LME cash discount global spot inventory pressure. ” Yang Long nanhua futures analyst pointed out that in the Philippines nickel policy, pushed by the Shanghai nickel underestimate the value of the bottom, before shake off the prices in the industry of excessive distortion have been fixed. But recent nickel pig iron with nickel plate gap widening, especially in low grade pure nickel prices rising support strong, if the Philippines mining review closure of more mines, September October nickel ore import few cases, the shortage of nickel possibility in the future. Nickel ore at the present stage is in strong rise, high nickel plate inventory may be less important. In addition, commercial housing sales, though a continued slowdown trend, but in the short term is still in recovery, for sale area is still declining, and the downstream consumption is mainly manifested in the industry of stainless steel back end, stainless steel inventories are in rapid decline, so the consumption growth is also greatly improved. Shanghai nickel may stand near 80000 yuan/ton, and further strengthened to 85000 yuan/ton 90000 yuan/ton.
however, exhibition dapeng argues that nickel fundamentals on the surface is very strong, but weak. Macro point of view, the current of China's rapid economic development does not support capacity expansion, so the future shuffle stainless steel smelting is bound to be a painful process, which will hurt the upstream industry chain. From the point of the industrial chain, high inventory, is the biggest negative inventories whether explicit or tacit, high stock prices rise, inventory will release hit the spot market. And the biggest benefit is more mines and nickel iron, the hype of the two, and so did the nickel rallied this year, and that as long as the prices have to rise can be fulfilled. Therefore, from the trend, low wide range will become the main melody in the future for a period of time. Medium term, subject to the instability of nickel policy and in the fourth quarter for library the ledo has not yet been reflected, in late September and October there may be a wave of market pull up, rebound height depends on the industry policy on fe ore final interpretation, after may stabilize or even fall back.