Precious metals monthly report: interest rates are cover gold price also expect ( 2016. 9)
a, precious metals market review
in September, the most let a person look forward to the fed's policy-setting meeting, is still end up lonely, though not as usual, tai chi, but the final decision is need more economic data to testify, in order to raise interest rates decision. Also, higher interest rates relationship state of the domestic economy, the fed also dare not just got to raise interest rates.
performance of precious metals at home and abroad in September closing quotation as follows, spot gold or 1323 times. $96, silver is 19 times. 09 $, platinum or 1018 times. $5, 99 times 284 of gold. 96 yuan/grams, 95 gold or 284 times. 45 yuan/grams, platinum 95 times 233. 5 yuan per gram.
2, relevant market analysis,
1. Peripheral markets
state of gold and silver in September to present a perfect negative correlation. Us ISM non-manufacturing data record low, as well as payroll data last month so-so, and market risk aversion to heat up, beauty refers to fell. And beauty refers to fall at the same time, bring a better support for gold.
the crude oil market worries about excess supply side remains unchanged, the IEA said on September 13, the status of the excess supply of crude oil & other; At least will continue until the end of the first half of next year & throughout; , the price of crude oil pressure fall to around $43 for a time. In the short term, we will also continue to pay close attention to about the Middle East and America's crude oil inventory. Crude oil prices are also expected to behave unstable. On the whole is present a wide range of prices.
due to the data released by the American general, at the same time the United States are reluctant to raise interest rates, the market lost confidence in the stock price pressure. Then enter the market is the United States election activities. Need you to focus on investors, in October will affect stock price in the short term. In the medium term, of course, is expected to stock is still high and volatile.
2. Fund holdings analysis
Sept. 27 - the world's largest gold fund SPDR Gold Shares Gold holdings to 949. 14 tons, relatively late last month to increase its stake in 5. 91 tons. This month's performance is relatively stable, showing poor enthusiasm for gold. Fund holdings data are relatively lagging behind a bit, investors are only for your reference, please verify.
silver fund - the same period iShares Silver Trust ( SLV) 11337 silver holdings. 95 tons, compared with the previous increase again in late 148. 67 tons. Silver institutions continue to show the enthusiasm for silver, sound silver prices rebound accidentally.
3. Gold futures position analysis
as of September 20, 2016 gold futures bull position is 326326 tons, is the end of last month 'holdings of 14260 tons; Short positions of 70147 tons, is the end of last month to increase its stake in 5902 tons.
in the same period, silver long position is 113567 tons, is the end of last month cut its 663 tons; Short positions of 30932 tons, is the end of last month to increase of 1056 tons.
this month silver bulls are presenting the state holdings, especially gold holdings. Suggest that market was late for gold, so that the deployment in advance. However, these are all ready to change the data, can only give you do reference use.
3, and to the rich treasure
in September gold runs smooth, maintain a wide range. But for now, gold is still lack of enough support, form a trend. Focus on October, of course, is the American election, if Hillary continued to win, is the bearish for gold. After the election, however, the focus will still return to raise interest rates. Actually not raising interest rates, said the best still depends on whether the U. S. economy is really better, better to the need to raise interest rates to regulate their own economy. Now the data is unable to support the argument to raise interest rates. So gold prices is expected in October is still a shock is given priority to, below the target to see $1300 on the line, above the target is near $1350. The interval operation. Silver:
spot silver trend of more unstable, the United States not to raise interest rates for the silver is not absolute positive. Is not enough to boost the silver industrial demand forecast. Silver is expected to continue to shock is given priority to, in October below support at 18. Around $6, Suggestions on operation on the whole is given priority to with high short empty.