Precious metals monthly report: interest rates expectations were sentenced gold ( 2016. 8)
a, precious metals market review
and other precious metals market interest rates expected by the United States this month; Fantasy & throughout; Constantly hit, yellen's positive remarks at the annual meeting of the global central Banks, the market believes the fed will raise interest rates several times during the year, U. S. economic data also relatively optimistic at the same time, don't give the market foot-draggers, short power.
performance of precious metals at home and abroad in August closing quotation as follows, spot gold to 1308. $7, with the silver 18. 61 dollars, platinum was $1048, the domestic gold close at 283 99. 19 yuan/grams, gold closed at 282 95. 8 yuan/grams, platinum 95 closed at 241. 92 yuan per gram.
2, relevant market analysis,
1. Peripheral market
beauty refers to the direction of the dip rebounded in August is given priority to, early once trend of higher leaning over with gold, the late under good economic data boosted, beauty refers to the lows, weigh on gold. Gold is expected to continue to remain choppy mid is given priority to, short-term trend is not clear, suggest interval operation is given priority to.
and the trend of crude oil is the opposite of beauty means, presents high rushed down trend. Crude oil is leaning more market worries about excess supply side, and this factor will make the price of crude oil also short-term hard anyway. Medium-term bearish price of crude oil would bring some good support for gold.
August U. S. stocks relatively cautious, the overall amplitude is not large, mainly sideways. Interest rates brought about by the optimism is not conductive to the stock market, then the bad time to estimate the gold market is also not too long.
2. Fund holdings analysis
August 28 - the world's largest gold fund SPDR Gold Shares Gold holdings to 943. 23 tons, from late last month to reduce its 14. 87 tons. During this month funds continue to be underweight, although the extent of underweight is not large, but the trend is underweight is given priority to, according to agency for gold and medium-term view more pessimistic. Now, this situation did not improve, expect prices have to fall in the short term. Fund holdings data are relatively lagging behind a bit, investors are only for your reference, please verify.
silver fund - the same period iShares Silver Trust ( SLV) 11189 silver holdings. 28 tons, compared with the previous increase again in late 311. 75 tons. Silver institutions more bullish on silver some obviously, but the shape of the silver didn't show better, don't be an error in the institutions judge? The author thinks that, if the position data reflects the real and effective, that is expected to return to the high silver is expected to be late.
3. Gold futures position analysis
as of August 23, 2016, gold futures bull position is 359785 tons, compared with the previous increase sharply in late 12359 tons; Short positions of 65176 tons, the reduction of the end of last month is 3295 tons.
in the same period, silver long position is 118356 tons, is the end of last month cut its 5381 tons; Short positions of 35153 tons, is the end of last month to increase of 7493 tons.
this month gold bulls to increase obviously, according to authorities more bullish on gold. Now trapped but the federal reserve to raise interest rates, the market performance is more cautious.
3, and to the rich treasure
the enthusiasm of the interest rates expected bad tend to be short of gold. Interest rates expected to gold to bring in the most bad estimates to near $1290, if not cooperate data surface or the fed's action, gold is hard to fall sharply again. Instead, if the data is general surface performance, long is expected to return to, for gold price swings higher. In September, then, we expect the gold, with gold buying season's arrival, the price of gold is given priority to with the attitude of concussion partial rise. Operating recommendations on empty single in early time, too. Silver:
news light in August, the silver is very rational callback. And want to fall further and the lack of a solid bad news, then silver is expected to shocks. Above short-term pressure on the 19th. 3, 19. Below the near $6, support for $18 a line.