Review: zinc weeks investors high position will low zinc downside risk big ( 9. 5 - 9. 9)
a, market review
figure 1: zinc rich treasure 0 #, Shanghai zinc, zinc LME charts
two highs in the city of zinc weeks, both inside and outside of the early phase plate zinc refresh again high, Aaron zinc hit more than 15 months high $2372 / ton, Shanghai zinc main 1611 contract close to 18600 yuan/ton, up to 18595 yuan/ton, but then gradually test, so far this year period zinc all the way up, refresh repeatedly tall, investors cautious high transaction, profit increased willingness to go off. By the end of week acquisition of zinc lost 10 day moving average, now $2315 / ton, near minimum 2292 weeks. 5 dollars/tons, weekly decline more than 2%, Shanghai zinc main 1611 contract now near 18140 yuan/ton, weeks minimum dip to 17920 yuan/ton, weeks, or about 2%. Inventory, less than 1000 tons of zinc to LME inventory this week to reduce, presently for 44. About 970000 tons. Zinc concentrate market
figure 2: zinc concentrate on charts
domestic zinc concentrate ( 50%, tax included) Weeks following the zinc price reductions, as of Friday's 13000 - yunnan zinc concentrate 13200 yuan/tons of metal, 13300 - hunan zinc concentrate 13500 yuan/tons of metal, gansu province, 13100 - 13300 yuan/tons of metal, 13300 - in guangxi 13500 yuan/tons of metal, fell 200 yuan/tons of metal from last week. Parts of zinc concentrate market supply tight, domestic and imported ore processing are still low, some smelters downstream high receiving intention is not strong, the market clinch a deal. Off-season end, zinc, usher in a golden nine silver ten, zinc concentrate market demand or have improved, but the domestic environmental protection is still tough, not up to standard of environmental protection of small and medium-sized miners and production, the late zinc concentrate market supply will remain nervous. The spot market
table 1: the spot price ( Unit: yuan/ton)
this week spot zinc prices down than up, less mainstream to Friday in the Shanghai area 0 # 18170 - zinc 18270 yuan/ton, down from last week 290 yuan/ton, weeks though zinc prices continued falling, but the downstream enterprises in the market from zinc inventory enthusiasm is not strong, fear down mood, but traders offer firm and zinc to Shanghai main of zinc premium changed little over the week, 10 - now a premium Litres, 110 yuan/ton, clinch a deal market as a whole. Guangdong area, south store now offer 17850-0 # zinc 18150 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton last week, trading, traders receiving hesitation, clinch a deal less than last week. Tianjin region, reported 18270-0 # zinc 18370 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton last week, fell less than Shanghai, guangdong area, volume is also poor.
3, afternoon to predict
the recent period high zinc touch down, the two cities on basic zinc supply shortage has not changed, still has a role in support of zinc prices, but early period zinc rise too hard, yet fall risk, investors high position will drop, outflows. From the technical side, the two cities of zinc is downward, Aaron zinc or test 2200 dollars/tons of support. Aaron zinc on interval 2200 - next week $2350 / ton, Shanghai zinc main 1611 contract 1. 75 - 1. More than 850000 yuan/ton, in operation, and single underweight.