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Review: zinc weeks to raise interest rates in June two, zinc pressure (probability 5. 16 - 5. 20)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-25
Core tip: Aaron zinc on interval 1780 - next week $1920 / ton, Shanghai main of zinc 1. 43 - 1. 530000 yuan/ton, operational, try an empty list.

a, market review

figure 1: zinc rich treasure 0 #, Shanghai zinc, zinc LME charts

weeks, two cities of zinc first after magnified, while the rise in oil prices boost phase of zinc in step by step, Aaron zinc weeks hitting $1907 / ton, Shanghai zinc main up to 15270 yuan/ton, the second half of the week, the federal reserve said, such as positive economic data, June or raising interest rates, the dollar, rising of zinc on downward, as of now Aaron zinc volatile near $1870 / ton, Shanghai main of zinc 1. Near 50000 yuan/ton, Aaron zinc weekly decline more than 1%, the Shanghai main of zinc weekly decline is about 0. Zinc 1%, Shanghai zinc is relatively strong. Inventory, zinc LME inventories continue to fall, weeks to reduce about 3000 tons, now 38. 70000 tons, the previous period also appeared to reduce stock zinc, less than 250000 tons. Zinc concentrate market

figure 2: zinc concentrate on charts

domestic zinc concentrate ( 50%, tax included) Price with zinc, yunnan zinc concentrate report 9150 - as of Friday 9350 yuan/tons of metal, 9950 - hunan zinc concentrate 10150 yuan/tons of metal, gansu province, 9650 - 9850 yuan/tons of metal, 9550 - in guangxi 9750 yuan/tons of metal, down from last week 50 yuan. Zinc enterprise normal delivery this week, according to the sales orders, factory reaction, downstream smelter YaKuan is serious, the decrease of monthly statement, because of price instability smelting plant a large number of inventory enthusiasm is not high, low season approaching, the enterprise on zinc prices, are interested in low stock price in the offseason. In addition, glencore said, zinc prices - up to 2100 $2300 / ton or zinc will stimulate them to restart idle capacity, glencore's zinc production in the first quarter fell 28% to 25. 710000 tons, in Australia, Peru and kazakhstan in mine production. The spot market

table 1: the spot price ( Unit: yuan/ton)

week 0 # zinc prices in Shanghai following last week's rally, jumped to 1. Above 50000 yuan/ton, but the second half of the week, now offer - 14850 14950 yuan/ton, down from last week 60 yuan. Smelters and traders to normal shipment, bidding firm and zinc to Shanghai main zinc liter discount for premium 80 - Premium 20 yuan/ton, downstream enterprise inventory from zinc will is not strong, a small amount of purchase, the market clinch a deal can be as a whole. Guangdong area, now offer 14590-0 # zinc 14890 yuan/ton, down from last week 60 yuan, traders trading slightly between active, clinch a deal less than last week. Tianjin region, now offer 15040-0 # zinc 15140 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan from last week, the market supply of goods is relatively abundant, zijin zinc ingot smelters and production.

3, afternoon to predict

if the federal reserve to raise interest rates in June, the market is expected to raise interest rates increased probability, if later the strong economic data, June will raise interest rates, the fed said zinc prices will depress. Expected short-term period zinc remain under pressure, the two cities focus on retail data, GDP, non-farm, late and yellen speaking. Aaron zinc on interval 1780 - next week $1920 / ton, Shanghai main of zinc 1. 43 - 1. 530000 yuan/ton, operational, try an empty list.
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