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The fed's employment index accident crash rates at the end of the hanging up again?

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
In probability close to a record high expectations for the fed to raise interest rates later this year, the federal reserve announced a comprehensive employment index accidentally fell, and worrying at the end of the prospect of higher interest rates.

local time on Tuesday, the federal reserve announced, in September this year the job market condition index ( LMCI) Down 2. 2%, a further decline in August, after the market is expected to rise by 1. 5%. The revised August LMCI drop by 0. 7% increase to 1. 3%.

see Wall Street after introduction, LMCI is fed jobs market conditions since 2014 composite index. It concluded from 19 indexes, including such important indexes and employment plan from unemployment survey such small target. The fed said at the time, the index will be better than non-farm reflect the real situation of the Labour market.

the LMCI decline in the immediate question is, whether the federal reserve to raise interest rates decisions are affected. As financial blogs Zerohedge shown below, LMCI unexpected decline as expected at the end of the federal reserve to raise interest rates as the probability of hit a record high, the market at present the probability of the fed meeting decided in December of this year is expected to raise interest rates by more than 60%.

the problem is, the following Zerohedge chart shows that whenever the pink area representative of American economic recession, LMCI will be markedly reduced. LMCI will fall in recent months the fed was the domestic economy is in danger, and then continue to postpone raising rates? The fed chairman yellen dare to raise interest rates in this situation?

recent fed official said, according to the fed still has internal divisions.

published on Friday September worse than Wall Street expected U. S. non-farm payrolls data, this year the fed FOMC voting Cleveland fed chairman Loretta Mester, said data fits her expectations, the job market performance & other; Solid & throughout; The fed's action has not been behind the curve, raise interest rates by 25 basis points is significant, all the FOMC meeting may have to raise interest rates.

Stanley Fischer, vice President of the federal reserve also satisfied with the employment data, said the United States and other Close to full employment & throughout; 。 But he also said that the federal reserve recently lags behind that of the yield curve risk is small, hinted that the fed policymakers hardly worried about the risk of late raise interest rates.

Chicago fed President Evans said on Monday, the U. S. labor market employment situation not pushing inflation rose to more than 2%, and he believes that inflation rose to 2% for a fed policy is very important. He said: & other; December rates can be a suitable time and but I did not see the urgency. ”

on Tuesday, Minneapolis fed chairman Kashkari also noted that us inflation is not standard, the FOMC rate increases and there is no urgency. , he said, should continue to keep the economy in the absence of push up inflation to create jobs.

LMCI in September and has no obvious influence on the market. Alcoa announced on Tuesday that day ( Alcoa) Poor results in the third quarter, U. S. stocks opened lower, the dow Jones industrial average fell more than 180 points.
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