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The global economic leading indicators - — China

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
The organization for economic cooperation and development ( OECD) Attaches great importance to the study of the economic cycle, regularly publish monthly composite leading indicator ( CLI) 。 This cycle indicators reflect the major economies, a bad timeliness, the latest monthly report are state of the economy (two months ago, The leading index in August October) 。

there is a way to reveal the periodical change of the global economy in advance & ndash; — China.

CLI below red line for China, the CLI for the blue line in the developed countries. As can be seen, since the mid - 1990 - s, after China's rapid industrialization, most of the economic cycle before turning point occurred in the developed economies, sometimes even months in advance.

in 2008, due to the rapid outbreak of financial crisis, economic fluctuations in the global economy is more consistent. However, China is still the first shows a bottom, although only a month ahead.

the main commodities, such as crude oil, there are also similar to the above model. In most cases, CLI index change ahead of the crude oil of China's major turning point. In addition, the CLI exceeds the CLI, crude oil prices tend to have a continued upward trend, and vice versa.

of course, because China is a series of economic indicators started in the early 1990 s, during the economic recession and financial crisis is not much, so can look for the sample is not enough, the above research conclusion lack of statistical robustness. However, is still a interesting question is, why in front of the economic cycle, China nearly always ahead of the developed countries?

we speculate that this is mainly related with China's economic structure. Compared with developed countries, China's manufacturing industry accounts for more than, appeared new orders much earlier, steel production, raw material purchasing lead to inventory, the higher energy consumption and so on. These factors constitute the kinetic energy of the global supply chain, and ultimately reflected in most OECD countries dominate the service sector. So, may be manufacturing, rather than China is a leading economic indicators.

it is important to note that, unlike other countries, China CLI index has been depressed recently, this situation is only in the financial crisis and economic recession. That conflicts and China's official GDP statistics, but and the fall in commodity prices and a rebound trend is consistent.

with the United States and other OECD countries, China clearly has been a turning point, the economy is on the rise. If this trend will continue, it will is a good news to the weak global economy.

although it is true that in the next few months the global economy may be a turning point, the incident caused by the reverse is unstoppable. CLI fluctuations more severe in China, in other words, the global economic environment is a greater risk than ever before.
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