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The ISM data? One day two fed official interest rates

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Although the latest data released by the us ISM manufacturing and services are far weaker-than-expected, Richmond fed chairman Jeffery Mr Lacker still think September to raise interest rates for good reason. Earlier on the same day, President of the San Francisco fed, said John Williams to raise interest rates sooner rather than later.

Wednesday local time, Mr Lacker speaking just after the fed's governance to testify in the house of representatives, said in the second half of this year the us economic recovery, economic growth will be 2% swing up and down, his views on the outlook last week, now, didn't change much. Mr Lacker said:

& other; To raise interest rates in September at the moment, the reason to be strong. ” “ I don't see what will hold us back. ”

when asked about the second time this year, said Mr Lacker, now the fed has lagged far behind in the fed's benchmark that should reach, he hopes to progress in that direction, the pace of interest rate policy need to catch up.

Mr Lacker also mentioned that in exploring maximum employment is consistent with the falling unemployment, for this, the rational man will explore the costs and benefits of differently.

and a hawkish voices

three earlier this week, President of the San Francisco fed, said in his speech, Mr Williams, the United States has good economy and moving in the right direction, to raise interest rates gradually reasonable and sooner rather than later, if interest rates wait too long, will lead to imbalance risk.

referring to recent economic data, Williams says carefully, unemployment and wage that economy has not overheated, but not to come to the conclusion that will still be trying to discern its meaning, don't worry about the outlook for employment is less than expected.

as for September whether to raise interest rates, when Williams said there was no special tendency, he holds an open attitude to September the fed meeting, expected to raise interest rates gradually over the next few years.

hawkish talk point subtle

Mr Lacker and Williams didn't the fed's monetary policy committee FOMC voting rights this year, has the right to vote in 2018. But two people are in worse than expected after the ISM data were fed official said. Williams was seen as a current fed chairman yellen ally. When former President of the San Francisco fed yellen, Williams is her chief policy adviser.

knowledge articles mentioned yesterday on Wall Street, published this week in August the ISM services index of 51. 4, a new low since February 2010, released last week in August the ISM manufacturing index is falling for the first time since February this year from 50, into a representative manufacturing area contraction of economic activity.

nearly ninety percent of U. S. economic output by the services sector contribution. Services index tumbled more worrying shrinking manufacturing activity accident spread to the service sector, economists had expected the United States in the third quarter GDP rebound is difficult to achieve. In the second quarter GDP growth under repair to 1. , after a 1% GDP growth of only 1% in the first half of this year the United States.

economist commented that the ISM survey report is not directly used in GDP, but weak in August data mean that U. S. economic growth could slow. And unexpectedly weak ISM data will add ammunition to the fed's dovish official, let disputes more fed conference held in September.

Goldman sachs has slashed rates this month, the federal reserve meeting probability and from 55% to 40%. Last Friday, in the face of lower than expected in August payroll data, Goldman also cry & other; August non-farm just in September to support the level of interest rates throughout the &; 。

the Chicago mercantile exchange ( CME) According to the fed funds futures trading production & other The fed's observation tools & throughout; , according to the market at present is expected in September and December fed meeting increases the probability of 18% and 52 respectively. Probability of 4%, to raise interest rates in December a 48 in the past more than 20 hours. 8% recovered.
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