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Tin tin monthly report: facing short-term adjustment is expected to bottom out rebounded in April

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
One, industry news,
Indonesia refined tin exports fell 25% in February,
Indonesia refined tin exports in February of 4505. 46 tons, to 5986 from a year earlier. 43 ton reduced by 25%. Indonesia is the world's number one refined tin exporter. Refined tin exports in January of 2485. 92 tons.
the tin ore concentrate exports in February fell sharply
the only export to the domestic tin concentrate in February of 8641 tons ( Gross weight) Exports of 72436 tons in January, down from 88%, down 53% year-on-year. In February of pure tin exports are at their lowest level since September 2014. The main reason is the influence of the Chinese lunar New Year holiday, most of the time, in February the wa region of mining operations and transportation in a pause state. In addition, myanmar's record concentrate exports in January, consumes port bonded warehouse almost all of the inventory, which makes exports fell sharply in February.
2, period march tin market review

figure 1: Aaron graph (tin tin and Shanghai march Yellow: Shanghai tin; Red and green: Aaron tin)
period present high tin movements back in March, the main cause of late fall heat may be because the market for commodities demand drops, the early stage of the lock out lead to profit. Aaron tin gains this month 5. 39%, rising to $855. Within the $17525, minimum $15800. Shanghai tin drop was about 0. 3%, down 290 yuan, month up to 117600 yuan, the lowest 103000 yuan. Second city phase obvious weak within the vulnerability patterns in tin, Shanghai period tin nearly two days significantly increased volume and open interest, falling speed, should be bearish put pressure on the money.
3, market profile
this month in the spot market prices overall concentrated in 110000 or so, late stage because tin price's rapid drop, spot prices fell back quickly to 106000 yuan/ton, but the performance of the firm and the relative futures premium is controlled 2000 yuan, the downstream because tin decreases procurement, market transactions to cool.
tin concentrate raw material prices continue to strong, easy to rise to fall, domestic price stability 60 degrees tin concentrate in 86000 yuan/ton, even if the period of tin and spot, continuously concentrate prices is still difficult to shake. Four, the monthly forecast

in late march the back to adjust the wave principle is the same as the past, the fast and fierce, this period in Shanghai tin performance more obvious, but Aaron tin defensive performance, support the domestic tin price to a certain extent, we expect 100000 below support strong, with short money out, Shanghai tin is expected to bottom out rebounded in April. And the spot market, at present from the mindset of domestic smelters, the price has dropped to below 110000, he showed a willingness to price later as the supply of goods on the market gradually consumed, if smelters to control shipments, the spot will show more strong.
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