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Weekly review: aluminum aluminum bullish don't chase after go up ( 5. 16 - 5. 20)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-25
Core tip: Aaron aluminum falling shock this week, the Shanghai aluminum performance is stronger, rebound rose about 3%, after continuous overhaul, aluminium no crash risk, but can you return to rally still need to wait for more signal, the Shanghai aluminum major breakthrough 12500 yuan is expected to rise further, cautiously bullish not chase after go up.

a, electrolytic aluminium market

figure 1: the Yangtze river spot aluminium charts
in east China: aluminium ingot prices this week overall performance picks up, as of Friday the Yangtze spot prices in 12460 - 12500 yuan/ton, from Friday raised 260 yuan/ton. About price movements of the spot market, the grocers, offer a strong, tight this week, the market supply of goods, as the rally by slowing, the grocers pricing start shipment, middlemen fill the dips libraries, and downstream enterprise receiving degree is not high, the actual purchase quantity is limited, the market clinch a deal.

figure 2: south China aluminum spot charts
in south China, guangdong area market aluminum supply increased significantly after delivery, the shipper's price is slow mood, eager to change now, lower price, supply increases, the intermediate huang will not goods high, downstream enterprises fear, receiving relatively cautious, the market mainly embodied in the grocers shipment, as of Friday aluminum ingots in south China in 12840 - to bring my ticket prices 12940 yuan/ton.

2, aluminium scrap market

table 1: aluminium scrap prices around the contrast
aluminium scrap prices this week to follow prices slightly raised, the range of 150 - in more 200 yuan, as of Friday, south China clean machine aluminum market mainstream in 9250 - quotation 9450 yuan/ton, raised $200 from Friday, hebei region this week to rise in 200 yuan more. The spot market, hebei market supply of goods increased from last week, the market transaction is active. Hunan area merchants more bullish prices trend, keep optimistic mentality, offer strong, market supply is tight, the guangdong region, according to the smelters to reflect recent by resistance to fall in the price of aluminium scrap lead to lower profits between the finished aluminum ingots and aluminium scrap. Aluminium scrap price fluctuations in jiangsu area is not much, the price is slightly lower than other regions.

3, futures market analysis


figure 3: Aaron aluminum date line charts
as we predicted last week, this week's present the concussion bottoming aluminum, high of $1564, the lowest $1533, 14 points in the vicinity of $1553 as of Friday, up from last week about $15.

after tumbled to daily for two weeks, this week's aluminum stabilizing, down basic kinetic energy release and market lacks bombshell guidance, moves slightly stalemate, intraday rebound are intent, but a stronger dollar suppresses the rally. Next week is expected to Aaron aluminum still is given priority to with range, as long as you don't fell below $1500 there will be no crash risk, but rose again still need to build up our strength.

figure 4: Shanghai aluminum date line charts
Shanghai aluminum recover from this week, strong performance, as of Friday, 15 points in 12435 yuan, up 365 yuan by 3. 02%, clinch a deal the active position to increase around 10000 hands.

after recovered 12000 yuan last week, the Shanghai aluminum to continue in this week, much higher than the performance outside dish, but stuck in near 20 daily average lines above, failed to break through many days in a row. Aluminum continues to rise from its current trends, the downstream Shanghai chance is bigger, but before the break through 12500 yuan, bullish don't chase after go up.

4, operating advice

after tumbled to daily for two weeks, this week's aluminum stabilizing, down basic kinetic energy release and market lacks bombshell guidance, moves slightly stalemate, intraday rebound are intent, but a stronger dollar suppresses the rally. Next week is expected to Aaron aluminum still is given priority to with range, as long as you don't fell below $1500 there will be no crash risk, but rose again still need to build up our strength.

Shanghai aluminum this week to continue to surge, obvious stronger than outside dish, but stuck in near 20 daily average lines above, days failed to break through. Aluminum continues to rise from its current trends, the downstream Shanghai chance is bigger, but before the break through 12500 yuan, bullish don't chase after go up.
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