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Weekly review: aluminum material aluminium prices or repeated next week, on every fall to buy ( 2016. 7. 4 - 7. 8)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Core clew: common callback commodity markets this week, although both aluminum market has dropped, but the overall defensive performance, and the domestic spot demand, high premium also supports aluminium firm, aluminum prices upward trend has not changed, next week is expected to market, though still has repeatedly, but the Shanghai aluminum is still expected to be up in 1. Satellite 30000, can buy on dips, pay attention to the influence of the non-agricultural data between tonight.

a, electrolytic aluminium market

in east China: inventory continues to decline to aluminium firm, with high prices last week rushed all the way, the aluminum prices up to 13100 yuan/ton, but lonely at the top, and hot summer season, end demand no obvious improvement, aluminium end rally in a row, for a brief callback, aluminum prices tumbled on Tuesday to 300 yuan, gave up early gains, aluminum spot overall volatility in 12760 - east China this week 13130 yuan/ton range, the cumulative month-on-month rise last week 30 yuan. A shipper's price is strong appetite, maintain premium shipment, but the downstream remained on-demand procurement, clinch a deal.

in south China: this week in foshan area aluminum ingots to bring my ticket price fluctuations in 13120 - as a whole 13490 yuan/ton, accumulative total from last week rose 50 yuan. Aluminum ingots with no ticket price fluctuations in 12170 - as a whole 12540 yuan/ton, the cumulative month-on-month rises 50 yuan. From the point of price, south China aluminum prices significantly higher than that of east China aluminium, and as of Friday, both differ 380 yuan/ton, mainly due to the currency supplies market, is quite price rised the grocers, and rainy weather in the north, the traffic is blocked, limited supplies the arrival of the goods. They said, although fewer current aluminum stocks, is support for aluminum prices, but the current aluminum market demand is still in the off-season, shoulds not be too high.

2, aluminium scrap market

this week ended higher after initially falling spot aluminium, aluminium scrap stagflation defensive, cumulative with 50 - fall About 100 yuan/ton, as of Friday, foshan region crushing raw aluminum prices in 10550 - 10750 yuan/ton, the cumulative month-on-month drop 50 yuan last week. Mimi ROM area aluminum market price about 9000 - machine 9100, accumulative total from last week fell 50 yuan, doors and Windows material market prices in 9400 - hebei area 9600 yuan/ton, the cumulative monthly held steady last week, the market has a price no city, early are tumbling prices surged, but the market reflects the strong is not hot, with up and down is limited, and the businessman could price decline, so the goods will not high, in the short term, prices or is still in the high and volatile, aluminium scrap, mainly on the sidelines or on-demand procurement.
3, analysis of futures market,

the trigger back in the UK after a round of rally, commodity market generally adjusting stage this week, but Aaron aluminum overall is still strong, the callback and up to 16 o 'clock on Friday near the $1645, down from last week about 0. 8%, while copper fell more than 4%, in addition to tin, aluminum most robust performance.

now Aaron aluminum still maintained since the end of 2015 to form a wave of upward trend, but this has not yet to break through innovation is high, so can not determine the rally will continue; Late Friday the United States will release non-agricultural data, such as data is poorer, the aluminum prices still have a certain rise space, better data are good against the dollar, aluminum or continue to finishing.

Shanghai aluminum present wide range trend this week, on Monday, once rushed up to 12785 yuan, and expand the callback, the lowest intraday hit 12270 yuan, and then gradually recovered, 15 points on Friday to 12565 yuan, down 195 yuan from last week.

Shanghai aluminum is the callback, but the overall defensive, aluminum ingots spot demand, high premium support also gives futures, aluminium upward trend, there is still 1 again. 30000, but the market is expected next week still have repeatedly, can buy on dips.

4, operating advice

after in last week, this week, prices have slowed markedly, and the present price movements on Tuesday, but as for the spot strong support, prices will fall is limited, in the short term, as inventories of production, and 1 - this year May China's aluminium cumulative production for 1241. 40000 tons ( More than 53% of global aluminum production) 43, fell. 90000 tons, domestic aluminum market supply side reform makes the decline of supply, demand, causing prices strong rebound, expected next week aluminium prices again and again, downward space is limited; The Shanghai aluminum 1607 contracts during the month and the main 1608 contract differs nearly 300 yuan, does not exclude the subsidies phenomenon before delivery, and tentatively suggest watching or on-demand procurement is given priority to, 1 spot. 250000 could buy near, medium and long term bullish unchanged.
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