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Weekly review: aluminum spot strong support, prices or high and volatile ( 9. 19 - 9. 23)

by:Deyuan      2020-12-23
Summary: the federal reserve to maintain the basic interest rates unchanged, the railway transport limited and each big manufacturers joint shipment, not support this week, rising prices, aluminum every breakthrough 1600, short-term rise form intact; Shanghai aluminum benefit from spot strong support, short-term is expected to continue high and volatile prices, but the backwardation larger extent, beware of high callback.

a, electrolytic aluminium market

figure 1: the Yangtze river spot aluminium charts
in east China: prices on Monday by a stronger dollar, a cut, but subsequent rally, 21, in particular, the regulation on administration of highway transfinite transport vehicle and each big merchant joint is not shipment, prices soared, daily gain the highest reached 400 yuan, the Yangtze river the spot price breakthrough 1. Speed to expand to 600 yuan, 30000 yuan, premium, in 13200 - quote us by Friday 13240 yuan/ton, last week raised $640, up more than 5%. Spot market, because manufacturer joint's price, the market bullish atmosphere, market supply is tight, as above 1. In 30000, the shipper of high active now, but the downstream enterprise has resistance to the high price, pick up the goods is not much, much, watching, market clinchs a deal between traders.

figure 2: south China aluminum spot charts
in south China: aluminium ingot prices also showed a sharp rise in south China this week, as of Friday, aluminum ingots in 13220 - to bring my ticket prices 13320 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan from last week, gains relatively slightly inferior in east China. Spot market traders operating more positive, the market transaction is active, shipment on Friday the grocers, ready for the downstream demand.

2, aluminium scrap market

table 1: aluminium scrap prices around the contrast
aluminium scrap prices follow the price rise this week, but the increase came to regional differences and can be seen from table 1, foshan area to get a more positive, reached 400 yuan, south China machine aluminum price back to $9000, in other parts of the aluminium scrap prices to rise, only around one hundred yuan, according to understand, although nearly two days aluminium ingot prices soaring, but aluminium scrap market price performance is not obvious, relatively lags behind, the foshan region is aluminium scrap prices to go up to 400 yuan, but prices have inhibition to clinch a deal, smelter demand a serious.

the spot market, & other; Gold nine & throughout; Season come to an end, the current market demand is still not as good as expected, henan market because of the environmental impact, the quantity of supply of goods to hebei region increased, other parts of the market supply of goods, smelter on-demand stock, it is reported in addition to the guangdong area increased orders for some large and medium-sized enterprises, in other parts of the busy season is not obvious. On September 21, implementation of the regulations on highway transfinite transport vehicle is, according to the hunan reflect a regenerative aluminium plant family, whether stock or shipment, freight charges are increased.
3, analysis of futures market,


figure 3: Aaron aluminum day line charts
aluminium gravity up this week, week due to the market for the fed meeting, trading, aluminum shocks; Followed the federal reserve announced to maintain the basic interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, a weaker dollar, boost Aaron aluminum rise again, and domestic prices strong support, Aaron aluminum to break through $1600, highest intraday climbed to $1645, from the trend, Aaron aluminum rose form in good condition, is expected next week will remain the trend of strong oscillation.

figure 4: Shanghai aluminum date line charts
Shanghai aluminum shocks before they rise this week, week follow Aaron aluminium range, Shanghai aluminum index minimum to 11810 yuan/ton, then the fed announced to maintain the basic interest rates unchanged, and railway transport limited, the major manufacturers joint don't shipment, lead to flow market supplies, the spot, the Shanghai aluminum with inflation, climbed to 12360 yuan/ton, the highest intraday rise 500 yuan from last week, short-term is expected by the tight spot inventory, and next week for National Day little long holiday, ready for the market enthusiasm high, aluminium or continuation of the high and volatile market.

4, operating advice

aluminium gravity up this week, week due to the market for the fed meeting, trading, aluminum shocks; Followed the federal reserve announced to maintain the basic interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, a weaker dollar, boost Aaron aluminum rise again, and domestic prices strong support, Aaron aluminum to break through $1600, highest intraday climbed to $1645, from the trend, Aaron aluminum rose form in good condition, is expected next week will remain the trend of strong oscillation. Shanghai benefit from spot aluminium firm support, Shanghai aluminum with inflation, climbed to 12360 yuan/ton, the highest intraday rose by $500 over the week, short-term is expected by the tight spot inventory, and next week for National Day little long holiday, ready for the market enthusiasm high, aluminium or continuation of the high and volatile market, backwardation amplitude is bigger, the callback is wary of a high price. Suggest that early has been ready for the merchants to wait for a moment.
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